# django_admin_log

action_time: 2024-06-04 03:25:08.874374
object_id: 1
change_message: [{"added": {}}]
object_repr:
  2778.HK: Champion REIT could lower debt-refinancing risk via its new HK$5 billion three-year unsecured loan facility with an interest margin of 88 bps over Hibor. It has already secured sufficient deb


action_time: 2024-06-05 04:34:14.044269
object_id: 3
change_message: [{"added": {}}]
object_repr:
  HSI: 5月財新中國服務業PMI升至54 創10個月新高, 受供需擴張提速、尤其是需求強勁的拉動，5月財新中國服務業PMI錄得54，較4月上升1.5個百分點，創2023年8月以來新高，連續17個月位於榮枯線上方,分項數據顯示，服務業供需兩旺，5月經營活動指數和新訂單指數連續第17個月位於擴張區間，並分別錄得2023年8月和6月以來新高。服務業需求覆蘇勢頭強勁，新訂單指數連續第四個月上升；新出口訂


action_time: 2024-06-05 04:35:05.767268
object_id: 3
change_message: [{"changed": {"fields": ["Contents"]}}]
object_repr:
  HSI: 5月財新中國服務業PMI升至54 創10個月新高, <br>受供需擴張提速、尤其是需求強勁的拉動，5月財新中國服務業PMI錄得54，較4月上升1.5個百分點，創2023年8月以來新高，連續17個月位於榮枯線上方,分項數據顯示，服務業供需兩旺，5月經營活動指數和新訂單指數連續第17個月位於擴張區間，並分別錄得2023年8月和6月以來新高。服務業需求覆蘇勢頭強勁，新訂單指數連續第四個月上升；


action_time: 2024-06-05 04:39:11.274620
object_id: 3
change_message: [{"changed": {"fields": ["Contents"]}}]
object_repr:
  HSI: 5月財新中國服務業PMI升至54 創10個月新高, 
  受供需擴張提速、尤其是需求強勁的拉動，5月財新中國服務業PMI錄得54，較4月上升1.5個百分點，創2023年8月以來新高，連續17個月位於榮枯線上方,分項數據顯示，服務業供需兩旺，5月經營活動指數和新訂單指數連續第17個月位於擴張區間，並分別錄得2023年8月和6月以來新高。服務業需求覆蘇勢頭強勁，新訂單指數連續第四個月上升；新出


action_time: 2024-06-05 04:45:08.288433
object_id: 3
change_message: [{"changed": {"fields": ["Securities"]}}]
object_repr:
  Macro: 5月財新中國服務業PMI升至54 創10個月新高, 
  受供需擴張提速、尤其是需求強勁的拉動，5月財新中國服務業PMI錄得54，較4月上升1.5個百分點，創2023年8月以來新高，連續17個月位於榮枯線上方,分項數據顯示，服務業供需兩旺，5月經營活動指數和新訂單指數連續第17個月位於擴張區間，並分別錄得2023年8月和6月以來新高。服務業需求覆蘇勢頭強勁，新訂單指數連續第四個月上升；


action_time: 2024-06-05 06:25:31.438716
object_id: 3
change_message: [{"changed": {"fields": ["Contents"]}}]
object_repr:
  Macro: In May, the PMI of Caixin China's service industry rose to a new 10 month high of 54, driven by the acceleration of supply and demand expansion, especially strong demand. The PMI of Caixin Chin


action_time: 2024-06-05 06:25:55.894396
object_id: 3
change_message: [{"changed": {"fields": ["Contents"]}}]
object_repr:
  Macro: 5月財新中國服務業PMI升至54 創10個月新高, 受供需擴張提速、尤其是需求強勁的拉動，5月財新中國服務業PMI錄得54，較4月上升1.5個百分點，創2023年8月以來新高，連續17個月位於榮枯線上方,分項數據顯示，服務業供需兩旺，5月經營活動指數和新訂單指數連續第17個月位於擴張區間，並分別錄得2023年8月和6月以來新高。服務業需求覆蘇勢頭強勁，新訂單指數連續第四個月上升；新出


action_time: 2024-06-05 07:58:48.917407
object_id: 4
change_message: [{"added": {}}]
object_repr:
  823.HK: Link REIT's Deep Valuation Discount Reflects Interest Rate Risk
  Link REIT's discount to book value could be sensitive to interest rates, which might impact fair value of its investment proper


action_time: 2024-06-05 07:59:27.340114
object_id: 4
change_message: [{"changed": {"fields": ["Contents"]}}]
object_repr:
  823.HK: Link REIT's Deep Valuation Discount Reflects Interest Rate Risk.

  Link REIT's discount to book value could be sensitive to interest rates, which might impact fair value of its investment pro


action_time: 2024-06-05 09:07:47.897018
object_id: 5
change_message: [{"added": {}}]
object_repr:
  9961.HK: Trip.com 攜程港股盤初下跌逾4%，在恒生指數成分股中領跌。此 前花旗在報告中指出，攜程發行13億美元可轉換優先票據的計畫料將降低公司的融資成本，不過仍可能在股票投資者中產生負面情緒，股價短期內或出現波動。
  當地時間9:36，攜程集團(9961 HK)跌4.1%，創一周以來最大盤中跌幅
  花旗分析師Brian Gong和Alicia Yap表示，公司有53.5億美元的短期


action_time: 2024-06-06 03:10:15.793102
object_id: 6
change_message: [{"added": {}}]
object_repr:
  BICHODVP Index: China’s property stocks are on track to enter a technical bear market as doubts remain on Beijing’s efforts to bolster the sector.
  A Bloomberg Intelligence gauge of Chinese developer 


action_time: 2024-06-06 03:15:19.872554
object_id: 7
change_message: [{"added": {}}]
object_repr:
  BICHODVP Index: Several of the largest holders of China's high-yield property debt have continued to cut their stakes, while smaller funds increased their stakes for a second month which could imply d


action_time: 2024-06-06 03:21:48.529217
object_id: 8
change_message: [{"added": {}}]
object_repr:
  Macro: China’s central bank is expected to continue replenishing liquidity in the financial system through multiple channels to keep funding at “reasonable and appropriate” levels, China Securities Jo


action_time: 2024-06-06 04:06:31.866104
object_id: 9
change_message: [{"added": {}}]
object_repr:
  BICHODVP Index: Property Hunglung’view 
  https://youtube.com/watch?v=54sNASzdT04&si=7p9W_cQ36X8_HpRE


action_time: 2024-06-06 04:57:23.340964
object_id: 10
change_message: [{"added": {}}]
object_repr:
  941.HK: 美國媒體The Information報道，蘋果（Apple）正與中國國企背景的電信商中國移動洽談，在中國推出串流平台Apple TV+。若談判成功，Apple TV+有望成為首個在中國營運的美國串流平台。

  知情人士透露，蘋果去年曾與中國移動(China Mobile)洽談在中國推出蘋果串流平台Apple TV+等相關事宜。

  報道稱，目前雙方談判狀態還未明確，不過若談判


action_time: 2024-06-06 05:05:02.659536
object_id: 11
change_message: [{"added": {}}]
object_repr:
  Macro: 企業頻抽水 後市陷困局

  大市受A股拖累，加上頻頻有抽水消息，6月開局始終未能走出上落市格局，18500點阻力大，好淡爭持或要等待內地再有政策消息才有望破局。

  多家大型科網企業接連在市場融資，繼京東集團（09618）及阿里巴巴（09988）後，消息指美團（03690）亦正籌備發行可轉換優先票據（Convertible Bond, CB），但仍有待國家發展與改革委員會批准，發


action_time: 2024-06-06 05:23:01.099010
object_id: 10
change_message: [{"changed": {"fields": ["Contents"]}}]
object_repr:
  941.HK: 美國媒體The Information報道，蘋果（Apple）正與中國國企背景的電信商中國移動洽談，在中國推出串流平台Apple TV+。若談判成功，Apple TV+有望成為首個在中國營運的美國串流平台。<br>

  知情人士透露，蘋果去年曾與中國移動(China Mobile)洽談在中國推出蘋果串流平台Apple TV+等相關事宜。<br>

  報道稱，目前雙方談判狀態還未


action_time: 2024-06-06 05:24:51.452897
object_id: 10
change_message: [{"changed": {"fields": ["Contents"]}}]
object_repr:
  941.HK: 美國媒體The Information報道，蘋果（Apple）正與中國國企背景的電信商中國移動洽談，在中國推出串流平台Apple TV+。若談判成功，Apple TV+有望成為首個在中國營運的美國串流平台。<span><span><span><span><span><span>

  知情人士透露，蘋果去年曾與中國移動(China Mobile)洽談在中國推出蘋果串流平台Apple


action_time: 2024-06-06 05:29:00.497205
object_id: 10
change_message: [{"changed": {"fields": ["Contents"]}}]
object_repr:
  941.HK: 美國媒體The Information報道，蘋果（Apple）正與中國國企背景的電信商中國移動洽談，在中國推出串流平台Apple TV+。若談判成功，Apple TV+有望成為首個在中國營運的美國串流平台。<br><br><br>

  知情人士透露，蘋果去年曾與中國移動(China Mobile)洽談在中國推出蘋果串流平台Apple TV+等相關事宜。

  報道稱，目前雙方談判


action_time: 2024-06-06 05:30:03.915540
object_id: 10
change_message: [{"changed": {"fields": ["Contents"]}}]
object_repr:
  941.HK: 美國媒體The Information報道，蘋果（Apple）正與中國國企背景的電信商中國移動洽談，在中國推出串流平台Apple TV+。若談判成功，Apple TV+有望成為首個在中國營運的美國串流平台。<br>
  知情人士透露，蘋果去年曾與中國移動(China Mobile)洽談在中國推出蘋果串流平台Apple TV+等相關事宜。<br>
  報道稱，目前雙方談判狀態還未明確，不


action_time: 2024-06-06 05:31:19.533657
object_id: 9
change_message: [{"changed": {"fields": ["Contents"]}}]
object_repr:
  BICHODVP Index: Property Hunglung’view <br>
  <a href="https://youtube.com/watch?v=54sNASzdT04&si=7p9W_cQ36X8_HpRE">Youtube</a>


action_time: 2024-06-06 05:32:36.848911
object_id: 11
change_message: [{"changed": {"fields": ["Contents"]}}]
object_repr:
  Macro: 企業頻抽水 後市陷困局<br>
  大市受A股拖累，加上頻頻有抽水消息，6月開局始終未能走出上落市格局，18500點阻力大，好淡爭持或要等待內地再有政策消息才有望破局。<br>

  多家大型科網企業接連在市場融資，繼京東集團（09618）及阿里巴巴（09988）後，消息指美團（03690）亦正籌備發行可轉換優先票據（Convertible Bond, CB），但仍有待國家發展與改革委


action_time: 2024-06-06 05:33:44.468541
object_id: 9
change_message: [{"changed": {"fields": ["Contents"]}}]
object_repr:
  BICHODVP Index: Property Hunglung’view <br>

  <a href="https://youtube.com/watch?v=54sNASzdT04&si=7p9W_cQ36X8_HpRE">Youtube</a>


action_time: 2024-06-06 05:34:39.686751
object_id: 6
change_message: [{"changed": {"fields": ["Contents"]}}]
object_repr:
  BICHODVP Index: China’s property stocks are on track to enter a technical bear market as doubts remain on Beijing’s efforts to bolster the sector.<br>
  A Bloomberg Intelligence gauge of Chinese develo


action_time: 2024-06-06 05:35:31.337984
object_id: 5
change_message: [{"changed": {"fields": ["Contents"]}}]
object_repr:
  9961.HK: Trip.com 攜程港股盤初下跌逾4%，在恒生指數成分股中領跌。此 前花旗在報告中指出，攜程發行13億美元可轉換優先票據的計畫料將降低公司的融資成本，不過仍可能在股票投資者中產生負面情緒，股價短期內或出現波動。<br>
  當地時間9:36，攜程集團(9961 HK)跌4.1%，創一周以來最大盤中跌幅
  花旗分析師Brian Gong和Alicia Yap表示，公司有53.5億美


action_time: 2024-06-06 05:35:49.273113
object_id: 1
change_message: [{"changed": {"fields": ["Contents"]}}]
object_repr:
  2778.HK: Champion REIT could lower debt-refinancing risk via its new HK$5 billion three-year unsecured loan facility with an interest margin of 88 bps over Hibor. <br>It has already secured sufficient


action_time: 2024-06-06 05:37:21.347405
object_id: 3
change_message: [{"changed": {"fields": ["Contents"]}}]
object_repr:
  Macro: 5月財新中國服務業PMI升至54 創10個月新高, 受供需擴張提速、尤其是需求強勁的拉動，5月財新中國服務業PMI錄得54，較4月上升1.5個百分點，創2023年8月以來新高，連續17個月位於榮枯線上方,分項數據顯示，服務業供需兩旺，5月經營活動指數和新訂單指數連續第17個月位於擴張區間，並分別錄得2023年8月和6月以來新高。<br>服務業需求覆蘇勢頭強勁，新訂單指數連續第四個月上


action_time: 2024-06-06 05:38:19.488434
object_id: 9
change_message: [{"changed": {"fields": ["Contents"]}}]
object_repr:
  BICHODVP Index: Property Hunglung’view <br>

  https://youtube.com/watch?v=54sNASzdT04&si=7p9W_cQ36X8_HpRE"


action_time: 2024-06-06 05:38:59.828955
object_id: 9
change_message: [{"changed": {"fields": ["Contents"]}}]
object_repr:
  BICHODVP Index: Property HungLung View <br>


  https://youtube.com/watch?v=54sNASzdT04&si=7p9W_cQ36X8_HpRE


action_time: 2024-06-06 12:35:56.768980
object_id: 12
change_message: [{"added": {}}]
object_repr:
  Macro: The European Central Bank delivered the interest-rate reduction it’s been flagging for months — moving away from a record high — but stopped short of indicating more may follow.<br>

  Official


action_time: 2024-06-07 03:57:45.170000
object_id: 13
change_message: [{"added": {}}]
object_repr:
  Macro: China’s exports jumped more than expected in May, boosting the growth outlook in the world’s second-biggest economy.<br>
  Exports rose 7.6% in dollar terms from a year earlier, while imports in


action_time: 2024-06-07 03:59:52.332744
object_id: 13
change_message: [{"changed": {"fields": ["Contents"]}}]
object_repr:
  Macro: China’s exports jumped more than expected in May, boosting the growth outlook in the world’s second-biggest economy.<br>
  <b>Exports rose 7.6% </b>in dollar terms from a year earlier, while <b>


action_time: 2024-06-07 04:31:03.741459
object_id: 14
change_message: [{"added": {}}]
object_repr:
  Macro: <b> New Trade War Brew </b>. "Western can't absorb, the world will not accept everything China wants to export." <b>Krugman said</b> <br>
  Krugman sad that China's leaders are "bizarrely unwill


action_time: 2024-06-07 09:19:00.425759
object_id: 15
change_message: [{"added": {}}]
object_repr:
  BICHODVP Index: Beginning of reveral in China's real estate negative drag. The sector has been a glaring drag on the country's post-Covid recovery. The latest policy change (on 2024-05-17) rest on  th


action_time: 2024-06-07 13:36:00.388281
object_id: 16
change_message: [{"added": {}}]
object_repr:
  Macro: Strong US Payrolls and Wage Growth Push Back Bets for Fed Cuts<br>
  US job growth surged in May and wages accelerated, prompting traders to push back the expected timing of Federal Reserve inte


action_time: 2024-06-08 02:01:38.901193
object_id: 17
change_message: [{"added": {}}]
object_repr:
  XAU: (@BofA, BLoomberg, 與黃金呈長期正相關的10年期真實利率，與黃金的巨大背馳）
  金價按原有的真實利率估值，就是無風險的無限長期零息債券，走勢應與長債同步<br>
  按長債的價格，金價將在驚人的800美元左右


action_time: 2024-06-08 02:05:08.955810
object_id: 17
change_message: [{"changed": {"fields": ["Contents"]}}]
object_repr:
  XAU: (@BofA, BLoomberg, 與黃金呈長期正相關的10年期真實利率，與黃金的巨大背馳）
  金價按原有的真實利率估值，就是無風險的無限長期零息債券，走勢應與長債同步<br>
  按長債的價格，金價將在驚人的800美元左右<br>

  中國人民銀行（PBoC）在連續18個月購買黃金後，於5月份突然停止購買黃金，黃金（XAU/USD）週五在2330美元附近交易，跌幅超過一個半百分點。<


action_time: 2024-06-13 02:05:33.785546
object_id: 18
change_message: [{"added": {}}]
object_repr:
  Macro: •	Headline and core CPI both came in lower than our and consensus expectations in May. Headline CPI was flat (vs. 0.3% prior), corresponding to a year-over-year change of 3.3% (vs. 3.4% prior).


action_time: 2024-06-13 02:21:49.961458
object_id: 19
change_message: [{"added": {}}]
object_repr:
  Macro: The soft core CPI for May is just one data point, and it follows a string of solid readings earlier in the year. Still, we see a clear signal in this report that policymakers should take on boa


action_time: 2024-06-13 03:45:05.666444
object_id: 19
change_message: [{"changed": {"fields": ["Contents"]}}]
object_repr:
  Macro: Federal Reserve officials voted unanimously to keep the benchmark federal funds rate in a range of 5.25% to 5.5% — a two-decade high first reached in July. They penciled in one interest rate cu


action_time: 2024-06-17 03:43:08.972513
object_id: 20
change_message: [{"changed": {"fields": ["Contents"]}}]
object_repr:
  mkt: China's industrial production slowed to 5.6% in May 24 from 6.7% in April. <br>
  Retail sales in May posted a 3.75 increase, higher than April's 2.3%.<br>


action_time: 2024-06-17 06:52:01.558952
object_id: 20
change_message: [{"changed": {"fields": ["Contents"]}}]
object_repr:
  mkt: Retail sales in May posted a 3.75 increase, higher than April's 2.3%.<br>
  China's industrial production slowed to 5.6% in May 24 from 6.7% in April. <br>
  Property investment from January to May


action_time: 2024-06-17 06:56:49.047946
object_id: 20
change_message: [{"changed": {"fields": ["Contents"]}}]
object_repr:
  mkt: Retail sales in May posted a 3.75 increase, higher than April's 2.3%. The acceleration in retail sales was the first since November.<br>
  China's industrial production slowed to 5.6% in May 24 fr


action_time: 2024-06-17 06:58:16.483943
object_id: 20
change_message: [{"changed": {"fields": ["Contents"]}}]
object_repr:
  mkt: <b><font size ="5">China still need to see new stimulus coming in"</font></b>
  Retail sales in May posted a 3.75 increase, higher than April's 2.3%. The acceleration in retail sales was the first


action_time: 2024-06-19 10:05:34.001945
object_id: 21
change_message: [{"added": {}}]
object_repr:
  Macro: 中國證監會發布深化科創板改革的八條措施，包括支持上市公司開展產業鏈併購整合、研究優化做市商機制等，有望為中國版那斯達克注入新的活力。港股恒生指數四個交易日以來首度上漲，而在措施公佈之前已經收盤的A股市場略顯疲弱，上證綜指繼續徘徊在3000點整數關口上方。<br>
  證監會在A股收盤後發布的新聞稿稱，將提高科創板上市公司併購重組估值包容性，支持收購優質未盈利「硬科技」企業。此外，還將優


action_time: 2024-06-20 02:26:54.823914
object_id: 22
change_message: [{"added": {}}]
object_repr:
  Macro: the People’s Bank of China Governor Pan Gongsheng hammered home the message that <b>the central bank is veering away from a traditional way of stimulating the economy</b>. 
  Speaking Wednesday 


action_time: 2024-06-20 04:45:57.697578
object_id: 23
change_message: [{"added": {}}]
object_repr:
  AI: Look for AI enablers. Like past technology cycles, significant investment
  in the underlying infrastructure is required in the early phase. This means
  companies that provide the backbone for AI d


action_time: 2024-06-20 05:22:53.385662
object_id: 23
change_message: [{"changed": {"fields": ["Contents"]}}]
object_repr:
  AI: <b>Look for AI enablers.</b> Like past technology cycles, significant investment
  in the underlying infrastructure is required in the early phase. This means
  companies that provide the backbone f


action_time: 2024-06-20 09:05:23.032659
object_id: 24
change_message: [{"added": {}}]
object_repr:
  Macro: PBOC, acknowledgment that the monetary authority is looking into trading government bonds in the secondary market as a way to regulate liquidity. That responds to <b>Xi's directive to "enrich t


action_time: 2024-06-20 09:32:41.932539
object_id: 25
change_message: [{"added": {}}]
object_repr:
  0345.HK: <b> Vitasoy Int'l</b><br>
  <b>Sales Performance</b>: Mainland China attached substaintial growth in operating profit, driven by disciplined sales execution and improved organizational capabil


action_time: 2024-06-20 09:33:28.800180
object_id: 25
change_message: [{"changed": {"fields": ["Contents"]}}]
object_repr:
  0345.HK: <b>維他奶 Sales Performance</b>: Mainland China attached substaintial growth in operating profit, driven by disciplined sales execution and improved organizational capabilities. <br>
  Vitasoy al


action_time: 2024-06-20 09:51:27.536511
object_id: 26
change_message: [{"added": {}}]
object_repr:
  FO: <b>Is a family office required  to be licensed under SFC's ordinance</b><br>
  The issue of whether a single family office is required to be licensed under the Ordinance is determined by reference 


action_time: 2024-06-26 03:35:05.610698
object_id: 27
change_message: [{"added": {}}]
object_repr:
  Macro: <b>Logistics hubs</b> that were built in anticipation of a long-lasting boom in e-commerce, manufacturing and food storage are losing tenants, forcing building owners to slash rents and shorten


action_time: 2024-06-26 03:52:54.243536
object_id: 28
change_message: [{"added": {}}]
object_repr:
  Macro: The warehouse vacancy rate in east China — where many logistics properties are clustered — climbed to 19.2% in the first quarter, according to data from Cushman & Wakefield. The overall vacancy


action_time: 2024-06-26 04:02:49.464042
object_id: 29
change_message: [{"added": {}}]
object_repr:
  SGREIT: Mapletree Logistics Trust, another Singapore-listed REIT, has also been having a difficult time in China. Rents across its 43 properties in the country fell 10% in the first three months of 20


action_time: 2024-06-28 01:19:35.608429
object_id: 30
change_message: [{"added": {}}]
object_repr:
  mkt: Lingering geopolitical risks, insufficient policy stimulus and the failure of the property market to bottom out anytime soon are the <b>three major impediments for</b> investors to take positions


action_time: 2024-06-28 02:00:49.212489
object_id: 31
change_message: [{"added": {}}]
object_repr:
  mkt: 根据新华社报道，中国中央委员会将于7月15日至18日举行第三次全体会议，预计将就一系列经济议题制定长期政策。两个月前，投资者基于对改革和经济救助计划的预期而热切买入，现在他们开始卖出，因为预计不会马上看到经济利好。<br>
  MSCI中国指数周四大跌，较5月20日高点跌逾10%，进入技术性回调。这给此次会议的成果设下了高门槛。<br>
  三中全会历来侧重于经济改革问题，往往更受投资者关注


action_time: 2024-07-09 01:55:20.344535
object_id: 32
change_message: [{"added": {}}]
object_repr:
  mkt: China ETFs See 5th Week of Outflows on Economy, US Vote Concerns<br>
  Investors continue to pull cash out of China, driving outflows across US exchange-traded funds tracking Chinese equities for 


action_time: 2024-07-10 01:29:57.510420
object_id: 33
change_message: [{"added": {}}]
object_repr:
  BICHODVP Index: China Vanke could repay short-term debt despite its warning that it expects to report a 1H24 loss of 7-9 billion yuan, we calculate. It reported 66 billion yuan of short-term debt at e


action_time: 2024-07-11 09:48:39.776270
object_id: 34
change_message: [{"added": {}}]
object_repr:
  9888.HK: 百度创始人李彦宏称，第一季度武汉全无人驾驶订单比例已超55%，4月份上升至70%，预计未来几个季度将快速上升至100%。预计在武汉2025年全面进入盈利期。实现盈利的背后，“萝卜快跑”第6代无人车整车成本相较于5代车下降60%，价格为20万元。<br>
  百度萝卜快跑的商业化进程也在稳步推进。截至目前，萝卜快跑已经在包括北京、武汉、重庆、深圳、上海在内的11个城市，开放了载人测试


action_time: 2024-07-12 03:21:00.094307
object_id: 35
change_message: [{"added": {}}]
object_repr:
  Macro: 美联储鸽派人物代表——芝加哥联储主席古尔斯比（Austan Goolsbee）周四称赞了最新发布的CPI报告，并称美国通胀看起来已经回到了通往2%的轨道上，因此他对“降息时机即将成熟”的信心愈发强烈。<br>

  “我的观点是，这就是通往2%的道路，”他在采访中说。<br>

  古尔斯比表示，周四稍早公布的政府报告显示，6月消费者物价指数（CPI）超预期放缓，这是“极好的”消息。


action_time: 2024-07-15 02:47:42.485600
object_id: 36
change_message: [{"added": {}}]
object_repr:
  Daily: 中國6月出口連續第三個月成長，貿易順差創至少1990年以來最高，但通縮陰雲不散，社融增速創紀錄新低，凸顯需求低迷。周一將出爐的二季度GDP料放緩，投資者聚焦三中全會是否會出台提振信心的新舉措。中國央行創設臨時正逆回購操作，這一新工具料將收窄利率走廊、弱化中期借貸便利(MLF)地位。國家金監總局繼央行之後也為狂熱的債市降溫，部分地方分局據悉提示轄區內銀行縮短債券久期。<br>


action_time: 2024-07-15 08:13:15.688586
object_id: 36
change_message: [{"changed": {"fields": ["Contents"]}}]
object_repr:
  Daily: China's GDP expended 4.7% in the second quarter from same period a year earlier, undershooting economists' median forecast of 5.1%
  <br>
  中國6月出口連續第三個月成長，貿易順差創至少1990年以來最高，但通縮陰雲不散，社融增速創紀錄新低，凸顯需求低


action_time: 2024-07-15 08:20:41.094085
object_id: 36
change_message: [{"changed": {"fields": ["Contents"]}}]
object_repr:
  Daily: China's GDP expended 4.7% in the second quarter from same period a year earlier, undershooting economists' median forecast of 5.1%. It was partly due to Retail sales rose at the slowest pace si


action_time: 2024-07-16 02:26:54.742804
object_id: 38
change_message: [{"added": {}}]
object_repr:
  JPY: A Trump stimulus package with fiscal expansion would be positive for Japanese equities and help the global economy remain resilient, as well as keeping the yen week, said Hideyuki Ishiguro, Chief


action_time: 2024-07-16 02:37:51.556094
object_id: 37
change_message: [{"changed": {"fields": ["Contents"]}}]
object_repr:
  Daily: Jerome Powell said recent data has boosted confidence that inflation is heading toward the Feb's 2% goal, possibly paving the way for a near-term rate cut. Mary Daly echoed the sentiment and sa


action_time: 2024-07-16 03:26:09.571304
object_id: 39
change_message: [{"added": {}}]
object_repr:
  9888.HK: Morgan Stanley issued a research report expecting Baidu, Inc. (BIDU.US)'s 2FQ25 core revenue to be roughly flat YoY, but advertising growth continued to be weak, with a 2% decline expected du


action_time: 2024-07-17 03:01:51.286873
object_id: 40
change_message: [{"added": {}}]
object_repr:
  mkt: Bloomberg Strategists say "without significant structural reforms to foster consumption-led growth and manage the demographic transition, China is likely to follow further in Japan's footsteps. S


action_time: 2024-07-17 03:21:18.314462
object_id: 41
change_message: [{"added": {}}]
object_repr:
  Daily: Asian Equities rose, joining a global rally as bets the Fed will soon start cutting interest rates fueled a rush into riskier corners of the market.


action_time: 2024-07-17 03:24:25.145916
object_id: 41
change_message: [{"changed": {"fields": ["Contents"]}}]
object_repr:
  Daily: Asian Equities rose, joining a global rally as bets the Fed will soon start cutting interest rates fueled a rush into riskier corners of the market. <br>
  Risk-on appetite appears to be back in


action_time: 2024-07-17 06:04:42.118351
object_id: 42
change_message: [{"added": {}}]
object_repr:
  CNUSRisk: The US is mulling whether to impose a measure called the foreign direct  product rule, or FDPR, The rule lets the country impose controls on foreign-made products that use the tiniest amount


action_time: 2024-08-01 07:35:23.015212
object_id: 43
change_message: [{"added": {}}]
object_repr:
  mkt: Weak demand and persistent deflation will continue weighing on Chinese share prices, with limited upside in the near term. <br>


action_time: 2024-08-01 07:38:55.700667
object_id: 43
change_message: [{"changed": {"fields": ["Contents"]}}]
object_repr:
  mkt: The Caixin/S&P Global manufacturing PMI contracted to 49.8 in July from 51.8 the previous month, missing analysts' forecasts of 51.5. That reinforced concerns about China's economic slowdown, wit


action_time: 2024-08-01 08:10:10.872556
object_id: 43
change_message: [{"changed": {"fields": ["Contents"]}}]
object_repr:
  mkt: China's PMI unexpectedly shrank for the first time in nine months in July. The Caixin/S&P Global manufacturing PMI contracted to 49.8 in July from 51.8 the previous month, missing analysts' forec


action_time: 2024-08-05 02:58:39.005826
object_id: 44
change_message: [{"added": {}}]
object_repr:
  mkt: US equities and bond yields fell in tandem on Friday (2 Aug), as weak job data fuel anxiety that the FEB has wait to long before cuting rates and that the US economy could be head for recession. 


action_time: 2024-08-05 04:54:28.627564
object_id: 45
change_message: [{"added": {}}]
object_repr:
  JPY: Japanese stocks extend loss on 5 Aug, but posititive structural drivers remain. The USDJPY was trading at 145.30 on 5 Aug morning, compared with nearly 162 just three weeks ago, as investors cont


action_time: 2024-08-05 07:57:26.970429
object_id: 46
change_message: [{"added": {}}]
object_repr:
  Macro: 隨着美國上周五公佈7月非農就業人口增加11.4萬人，遠遜預期的17.5萬人，以及失業率升至4.3%，同樣遜預期的4.1%及創近3年新高，市場關注被視為預測經濟衰退100%準確的「薩姆規則」（Sahm Rule）已經觸發，並有意見批評聯儲局可能等待太久才開始減息。<bR>
  Sahm Rule-「薩姆規則」，即失業率3個月平均值比過去12個月低位高出0.5個百分點時，意味經濟已經處於衰


action_time: 2024-08-06 06:44:15.977307
object_id: 47
change_message: [{"added": {}}]
object_repr:
  Macro: Recession. the speed of the rise in unemployment gained particular attention, as it triggered the Sahm rule, by which since 1960 a recession has begun every time the three months average unempl


action_time: 2024-08-06 08:30:52.663431
object_id: 48
change_message: [{"added": {}}]
object_repr:
  Macro: What could trigger a downside scenario? This could happen by a variety of mechanisms:<br>
  (1) Future data demonstrates that jobs are being shed, adding to evidence that Feb policy has been too


action_time: 2024-08-06 09:09:51.720571
object_id: 49
change_message: [{"added": {}}]
object_repr:
  Recom: Throughout 2024 UBS has reiterated the theme of quality in both bonds and equities. <br>
  In fixed income, UBS would expect quality bonds to deliver positive total returns in our base case, and


action_time: 2024-09-04 02:54:23.128104
object_id: 50
change_message: [{"added": {}}]
object_repr:
  315.HK: 數碼通Smartone（00315）公布截至6月底全年業績，期內收入錄62.2億元，按年跌8%；純利4.7億元，按年增74.9%，主要是由於2023財年曾錄得2億元的預期信貸虧損，而2024財年則無此虧損。<br>

  數碼通每股賺42.6仙，建議派付末期息每股17.5仙，全年每股派32仙，按年持平。數碼通績前收報3.84元，以此推算，股息率8.3厘。<br>

  數碼通全年服


action_time: 2024-09-04 03:06:57.015734
object_id: 51
change_message: [{"added": {}}]
object_repr:
  Macro: <b>美製造業新定單急跌 衰退憂慮增</b>

  美國8月ISM製造業指數回升至47.2，低於市場預期47.5（見表），再度引發市場對美國經濟衰退、甚至滯脹的憂慮。單次減息0.5厘的預期輕微升溫，利率期貨顯示，9月減息0.5厘的機率由上周33%升至最新近4成。<br>

  資金湧入債市避險，10年期國債息率跌穿3.9厘水平。經濟數據轉差亦拖累道指開市後下跌，截至昨晚11時15分，


action_time: 2024-09-04 03:22:04.577112
object_id: 52
change_message: [{"added": {}}]
object_repr:
  Macro: 中国 不良贷款率，
  2005 - 2024 | 季 | % | CEIC Data，
  中国的不良贷款率在06-01-2024达1.6%，相较于03-01-2024的1.6%有所下降。中国不良贷款率数据按季更新，03-01-2005至06-01-2024期间平均值为1.7%，共78份观测结果。该数据的历史最高值出现于03-01-2005，达12.4%，而历史最低值则出现于09-01


action_time: 2024-09-04 03:24:43.816135
object_id: 53
change_message: [{"added": {}}]
object_repr:
  mkt: <b>二季度末中國商業銀行不良貸款“雙降”</b>
  中國新聞網 2024-08-09 22:38:18 46万
  　　中新社北京8月9日電 (記者 王恩博)中國國家金融監管總局9日公佈，2024年二季度末，中國銀行業金融機構本外幣資產總額433.1萬億元(人民幣，下同)，同比增長6.6%；商業銀行不良貸款餘額和不良貸款率“雙降”。<br>

  　　數據顯示，中國銀行業金融服務持續加強


action_time: 2024-09-04 03:27:03.246026
object_id: 53
change_message: [{"changed": {"fields": ["Securities", "Contents"]}}]
object_repr:
  Macro: <b>二季度末中國商業銀行不良貸款“雙降”</b>
  中國新聞網 2024-08-09 22:38:18 46万
  　　中新社北京8月9日電 (記者 王恩博)中國國家金融監管總局9日公佈，2024年二季度末，中國銀行業金融機構本外幣資產總額433.1萬億元(人民幣，下同)，同比增長6.6%；商業銀行不良貸款餘額和不良貸款率“雙降”。<br>

  　　數據顯示，中國銀行業金融服務持續


action_time: 2024-09-04 05:21:08.593862
object_id: 54
change_message: [{"added": {}}]
object_repr:
  mkt: <b>BackRock's EM ETF Loss Billions on China "Volatility Machine"</b>, money managers yanked billions out of EM ETF that buys emerging market stocks as mounting evidence of a weakening Chinese eco


action_time: 2024-09-04 08:04:58.983516
object_id: 55
change_message: [{"added": {}}]
object_repr:
  mkt: <b> China Services Expansion Cools in New Sign of Economic Weakness</b>. China's services activity expanded less than expected, adding to worries over the economy's health. <br>
  The Caixin China


action_time: 2024-09-05 01:49:20.499669
object_id: 56
change_message: [{"added": {}}]
object_repr:
  mkt: JPMorgan Chase abandoned its buy recommendation for Chinese stocks, citing heightening volatility around the upcoming US elections  in addition to growth headwinds and tepid policy support. China


action_time: 2024-09-05 02:22:25.245515
object_id: 57
change_message: [{"added": {}}]
object_repr:
  mkt: Earnings per share for MSCI China index fell 4.5% from the year earlier in the second quarter, its worst in the first quarter. Underscoring the contraction was weakening support from country's ei


action_time: 2024-09-05 02:42:59.269583
object_id: 58
change_message: [{"added": {}}]
object_repr:
  Bank: <b> Beijing mulling mortgage refinance a risk to Bank. </b> China mortgage rate cut may slice $33B off from 10 bank profits, or 11.8% of pretax on average, if the government goes ahead with a re


action_time: 2024-09-05 02:57:40.956561
object_id: 58
change_message: [{"changed": {"fields": ["Contents"]}}]
object_repr:
  Bank: <b> Beijing mulling mortgage refinance a risk to Bank. </b>Financial regulator has proposed reducing rates on outstanding mortgage nationwide by a total of about 80 basis points. The first cut m


action_time: 2024-09-09 10:45:45.160450
object_id: 59
change_message: [{"added": {}}]
object_repr:
  mkt: China's former central bank chief made a rare admission that the nation should tackle deflation. The economy face worst deflationary streak since 1999, putting pressure on corporate profit, wage 


# django_session

session_key: nw34d739pzm4f2wxtxpc118kps4wv12t
expire_date: 2024-06-18 02:49:56.733102
session_data:
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session_key: srbl1gcyzcnd2tfrqrf5lk6sc0zkfbd1
expire_date: 2025-01-25 13:44:44.873783
session_data:
  MmRjN2JmNDdhNzAxMzc3NTAzN2ViNjVmNGVhYTlkMGIxMDNiZGFkNjp7Il9hdXRoX3VzZXJfaWQiOiIyIiwiX2F1dGhfdXNlcl9iYWNrZW5kIjoiZGphbmdvLmNvbnRyaWIuYXV0aC5iYWNrZW5kcy5Nb2RlbEJhY2tlbmQiLCJfYXV0aF91c2VyX2hhc2giOiI4ZDY0OGUxOTEyNTQ3MzQzZGU1OWViYTRlMjg5NGUyMzkxNWY3YWYzIn0=


# wmgt_secdata

source: Bloomberg
date: 2024-06-05
contents:
  Champion REIT could lower debt-refinancing risk via its new HK$5 billion three-year unsecured loan facility with an interest margin of 88 bps over Hibor. <br>It has already secured sufficient debt facilities to refinance all outstanding debt due in 2024-25. Its average borrowing cost could increase from last year's 4%, given one-month Hibor is now at about 4.5%. (06/04/24)


source: HKET
date: 2024-06-05
contents:
  5月財新中國服務業PMI升至54 創10個月新高, 受供需擴張提速、尤其是需求強勁的拉動，5月財新中國服務業PMI錄得54，較4月上升1.5個百分點，創2023年8月以來新高，連續17個月位於榮枯線上方,分項數據顯示，服務業供需兩旺，5月經營活動指數和新訂單指數連續第17個月位於擴張區間，並分別錄得2023年8月和6月以來新高。<br>服務業需求覆蘇勢頭強勁，新訂單指數連續第四個月上升；新出口訂單指數也連增四月並且連續第九個月錄得榮枯線以上，顯示海外需求加速擴張。 受供需擴張提速帶動，服務業就業改善，5月就業指數創2023年10月以來新高，結束此前連續三個月的收縮態勢。<br>調查企業反映，增加用工是為了應對持續增加的業務量。供給側的高活躍度消化了部分在手訂單，5月服務業積壓工作量減少。 服務業價格繼續上升。<br>5月服務業投入品價格指數錄得2023年7月以來新高，此輪成本上行趨勢至今已延續近四年。<br>據受訪企業反映，原材料、勞動力和運輸成本上漲是服務業成本上漲的主要因素。受投入成本不斷上漲影響，服務業企業傾向於將增加的成本負擔傳導至顧客，5月服務業收費價格指數錄得2022年2月來最高，數值仍算溫和，但已超過疫情前增速均值。<br>服務業企業對未來市場仍較為看好，但對全球經濟環境以及原材料價格上升有所擔憂，5月服務業經營預期指數位於擴張區間，但低於長期均值。 <br>財新智庫高級經濟學家王喆表示，當月服務業就業由降轉升，拉動綜合就業指數近九個月以來首次錄得擴張區間。就業壓力偏大、需求弱於供給依然是當前經濟面臨的突出問題，究其原因仍在於社會整體預期偏弱，這是過去較長時間內外部多種不利因素疊加影響所致。長期積累的問題需在長期中尋求解決途徑，各項旨在穩經濟、促內需、增就業的政策加力增效並保持一貫性和連續性，應是施政重點。


source: Bloomberg
date: 2024-06-05
contents:
  Link REIT's Deep Valuation Discount Reflects Interest Rate Risk.

  Link REIT's discount to book value could be sensitive to interest rates, which might impact fair value of its investment properties and interest expenses. Its average borrowing cost might remain elevated at about 4%, as about 30% of its debt was subject to floating interest rates. Its deep discount to book value could reflect the potential risk of rising cap rates, which would shrink the value of its investment properties, particularly retail and office buildings in Hong Kong.

  Link REIT's forward price-to-earnings ratio of 12.9x is close to a five-year low. It's trading at a price-to-book ratio of 0.48x, compared with Wharf REIC's 0.37x and Hysan's 0.19x.


source: Bloomberg
date: 2024-06-05
contents:
  Trip.com 攜程港股盤初下跌逾4%，在恒生指數成分股中領跌。此 前花旗在報告中指出，攜程發行13億美元可轉換優先票據的計畫料將降低公司的融資成本，不過仍可能在股票投資者中產生負面情緒，股價短期內或出現波動。<br>
  當地時間9:36，攜程集團(9961 HK)跌4.1%，創一周以來最大盤中跌幅
  花旗分析師Brian Gong和Alicia Yap表示，公司有53.5億美元的短期借款，且需
  要投資以在亞洲市場獲得占有率，利用更便宜的可轉換票據融資也是合理選擇◦  <br> 由於發行所得款項將用來償還現有債務等，此次交易後，公司融資成本有望降低，而且轉換時的現金平價結算或弱化股份稀釋效應 攜程擬以不超過1.0%的票面利率發行可轉換票據


source: Bloomberg
date: 2024-06-06
contents:
  China’s property stocks are on track to enter a technical bear market as doubts remain on Beijing’s efforts to bolster the sector.<br>
  A Bloomberg Intelligence gauge of Chinese developer shares dropped as much as 2.6% on Thursday, extending losses from a mid-May high to about 20%.<br>
  Real estate stocks have retreated amid skepticism over a broad support package unveiled by the central government on May 17. While investors initially cheered the policies, which include lower down-payment requirements for homebuyers, they have since questioned how useful the measures will be in reviving demand and addressing a housing inventory glut.


source: Bloomberg
date: 2024-06-05
contents:
  Several of the largest holders of China's high-yield property debt have continued to cut their stakes, while smaller funds increased their stakes for a second month which could imply diverging views on the sector's recovery outlook following the latest stimulus. We also take a look at the recent fund rotation in Vanke, Longfor, Country Garden, Road King and Agile.


source: Bloomberg
date: 2024-06-06
contents:
  China’s central bank is expected to continue replenishing liquidity in the financial system through multiple channels to keep funding at “reasonable and appropriate” levels, China Securities Journal reported in front page, citing experts.<br>
  The overall stability of the money markets has not changed substantially despite some rapid liquidity withdrawals early this month, showing the PBOC’s liquidity management has worked, the report cited Bruce Pang, chief economist for Greater China at Jones Lang Lasalle, as saying
  Interest rates are expected to continue fluctuating within a narrow range around the policy rates, and the probability of sharper-than-expected liquidity fluctuations remains low


source: HKET
date: 2024-06-06
contents:
  美國媒體The Information報道，蘋果（Apple）正與中國國企背景的電信商中國移動洽談，在中國推出串流平台Apple TV+。若談判成功，Apple TV+有望成為首個在中國營運的美國串流平台。<br>
  知情人士透露，蘋果去年曾與中國移動(China Mobile)洽談在中國推出蘋果串流平台Apple TV+等相關事宜。<br>
  報道稱，目前雙方談判狀態還未明確，不過若談判成功，Apple TV+將成為中國市場唯一的美國串流平台服務，有望從中國移動的2億多名用戶中獲利。<br>
  據稱，若談判成功，中國移動將通過網絡機頂盒提供Apple TV+服務，按月收費，<br>

  目前，Apple TV+在美國的訂閱月費為9.99美元（約72元人民幣），報道預計若Apple TV+成功進入中國市場，月費將低於這一金額。<br>

  料旗下內容 中移動平台上架<br>

  不過按中國法律規定，若中國開放Apple TV+進入市場，Apple TV+不會在市場獨立營運，Apple TV+的電影、劇集等內容可能會在中國移動旗下的「咪咕視頻」上架。<br>

  此外，蘋果同時就訂閱制遊戲平台Apple Arcade等服務，與中國移動進行討論。


source: HKET
date: 2024-06-06
contents:
  企業頻抽水 後市陷困局<br>
  大市受A股拖累，加上頻頻有抽水消息，6月開局始終未能走出上落市格局，18500點阻力大，好淡爭持或要等待內地再有政策消息才有望破局。<br>

  多家大型科網企業接連在市場融資，繼京東集團（09618）及阿里巴巴（09988）後，消息指美團（03690）亦正籌備發行可轉換優先票據（Convertible Bond, CB），但仍有待國家發展與改革委員會批准，發行規模、時間及條款等仍未落實。<br>

  此外，攜程集團（09961）亦發行總值13億美元（折合逾100億港元）的CB，集資所得將用作償還金融債務、拓展海外業務及營運資金。在市場接連有「抽水」消息下，難免出現購買力不足的窘境，而且相關壓力需要時間慢慢消化。


source: Bloomberg
date: 2024-06-06
contents:
  The European Central Bank delivered the interest-rate reduction it’s been flagging for months — moving away from a record high — but stopped short of indicating more may follow.<br>

  Officials led by President Christine Lagarde <b>lowered the key deposit rate by a quarter-point to 3.75% </b>on Thursday, as expected. Having kept it at 4% for nine months, they said the inflation outlook has improved “markedly,” though they also raised projections for prices.<br>
  当地时间6月6日，欧洲中央银行召开货币政策会议，决定在连续22个月维持高利率之后降息25个基点，主要再融资利率降至4.25%，边际贷款利率降至4.50%，存款机制利率降至3.75%。


source: Bloomberg
date: 2024-06-07
contents:
  China’s exports jumped more than expected in May, boosting the growth outlook in the world’s second-biggest economy.<br>
  <b>Exports rose 7.6% </b>in dollar terms from a year earlier, while <b>imports increased1.8%</b>, the customs dministration said Friday. That left a trade surplus of $82.6 billion for the month. Economists had forecast that exports would expand by 5.7% and imports by 4.3%.<br>
  Beijing is relying on sales aboard to offset weak consumer spending at home, where a real estate slump has led households tighten their belts(<b>tight the purse strings</b>).


source: Bloomber
date: 2024-06-07
contents:
  <b> New Trade War Brew </b>. "Western can't absorb, the world will not accept everything China wants to export." <b>Krugman said</b> <br>
  Krugman sad that China's leaders are "bizarrely unwilling" to use more government spending to support consumer demand instead of production. (2024-06-07)


source: News
date: 2024-05-17
contents:
  Beginning of reveral in China's real estate negative drag. The sector has been a glaring drag on the country's post-Covid recovery. The latest policy change (on 2024-05-17) rest on  three key components:<br>
  The first is an unprecedented push on the demand side, including lifting home purchase restrictions, removing the floor for mortgage interest rates, and lowering <b>the downpayment ratio for the first-time homebuyers to 15%</b>, a record low.<br>
  The second pillar to absorb the overhang in housing supply. Beijing urging local governments to buy unsold homes and convert them into social housing projects. <b>The PBOC announced a RMB300b re-lending scheme to kickstart this program.</b><br>
  The third component aims to alleviate liquidity stress among developers. Regulators and local governments have introduced a <b>whitelist</b> of projects eligible for commercial bank funding support.


source: Bloomberg
date: 2024-06-07
contents:
  Strong US Payrolls and Wage Growth Push Back Bets for Fed Cuts<br>
  US job growth surged in May and wages accelerated, prompting traders to push back the expected timing of Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts.<br>

  Nonfarm payrolls advanced 272,000 last month, a Bureau of Labor Statistics report showed Friday, beating all projections in a Bloomberg survey of economists. Average hourly earnings climbed 0.4% from April and 4.1% from a year ago, both picking up from the prior report.<br>

  However, the unemployment rate — which is derived from a separate survey — increased to 4% from 3.9%, rising to that level for the first time in over two years.


source: HKET
date: 2024-06-07
contents:
  (@BofA, BLoomberg, 與黃金呈長期正相關的10年期真實利率，與黃金的巨大背馳）
  金價按原有的真實利率估值，就是無風險的無限長期零息債券，走勢應與長債同步<br>
  按長債的價格，金價將在驚人的800美元左右<br>

  中國人民銀行（PBoC）在連續18個月購買黃金後，於5月份突然停止購買黃金，黃金（XAU/USD）週五在2330美元附近交易，跌幅超過一個半百分點。<br>

  中國人民銀行週五公佈的官方數據顯示，中國人民銀行的黃金儲備在5月底保持在7280萬金衡制盎司不變，與4月底的數字完全相同。
  <br> 

  先前，中國人民銀行的黃金儲備在 4 月創下歷史新高，佔總儲備的 4.9%，連續 18 個月維持成長。
  <br>

  央行買盤，尤其是亞洲央行的買盤，目前已成為金價的主要推手。這可能是 2024 年金價反彈的幕後推手，5 月金價創下了 2,450 美元的歷史新高。 據世界黃金協會（WGC）稱，央行未報告的場外買盤（即不透過交易所）是黃金走強的重要推動力。<br>

  "從我們的黃金回報歸因模型（GRAM）來看，沒有任何一個變數在5月份成為突出的關鍵驅動因素，"世界黃金協會5月份的報告稱，"動量和美元走弱是正面的驅動因素，但其影響微乎其微。<br>雖然 5 月份模型中無法解釋的部分大幅減少，但到目前為止，它仍然是最大的因素。正如我們先前所指出的，我們認為這其中有一部分可歸因於強勁的場外買盤，包括央行的購買，而央行的購買是近期黃金回報的顯著貢獻者。 "


source: Bloomberg
date: 2024-06-12
contents:
  •	Headline and core CPI both came in lower than our and consensus expectations in May. Headline CPI was flat (vs. 0.3% prior), corresponding to a year-over-year change of 3.3% (vs. 3.4% prior). <br>
  •	Core CPI inflation — which is more important for the rates outlook — increased 0.2% monthly (vs. 0.3% prior), and 3.4% year over year (vs. 3.6% prior).<br>
  •	One-, three-month, and six-month annualized measures of core CPI fell to 2.0% (vs. 3.6% prior), 3.3% (vs. 4.1%) and 3.7% (vs. 4.0%), respectively.<br>
  •	Based on May’s CPI, we estimate the Fed’s preferred inflation indicator — the core PCE deflator, due out June 28 — will moderate to 0.1% monthly (vs. 0.2% prior), and will slow to 2.6% in year-over-year terms (vs. 2.8% prior).<br>
  •	Declining energy prices drove the headline print, with gasoline prices falling 3.6% in May on a seasonally adjusted basis.<br>
  •	Core goods prices were flat (vs. -0.1% in April). A key driver was a seasonally adjusted 0.5% drop in new-car prices (vs. -0.4% prior), though used-car prices gained 0.6% (vs. -1.4% prior). Prices declined for discretionary goods such as recreation commodities and electronics, as businesses slash prices with households pulling back on discretionary spending. Apparel prices fell, likely due to declining import prices as the dollar appreciated in May.<br>
  •	Core services inflation slowed meaningfully in May – much of it due to a 0.5% drop in transportation services (vs. +0.9% prior), especially declining car-insurance premiums. Primary rents and owners-equivalent rent (OER) both met our expectations by increasing 0.4%, same as in April.<br>
  •	Market rents suggest both OER and primary-rent inflation will slow throughout 2024, with annual overall shelter inflation falling to 4.0% by year-end (from 5.5% in April). Still, the moderation in rent inflation has been slower than we expected over the past year — flagging a risk that the disinflation process for housing rents may take longer than we anticipated.<br>
  •	Looking forward, with gasoline prices down 2.2% so far in June on a seasonally adjusted basis, monthly headline CPI for June is on track to print at about 0.2%, with the year-over-year change at 3.2%. We anticipate soft core CPI (0.2% monthly) for both June and July, with declining car prices driving those prints.<br>
  •	Bottom line: May’s CPI report is encouraging — and the core PCE deflator will likely be even more so. We anticipate a string of similar reports this summer, setting the stage for the Fed to start cutting rates in September<br>


source: Bloomberg
date: 2024-06-12
contents:
  Federal Reserve officials voted unanimously to keep the benchmark federal funds rate in a range of 5.25% to 5.5% — a two-decade high first reached in July. They penciled in one interest rate cut this year and four more in 2025. Chair Jerome Powell says inflation has eased but is still too high and that economic activity has continued at a “solid pace.” He speaks in Washington.<br>
  <b>“The most recent inflation readings have been more favorable than earlier in the year, however, and there has been modest further progress toward our inflation objective,” </b>Chair Jerome Powell said Wednesday following the conclusion of a two-day meeting in Washington. “We’ll need to see more good data to bolster our confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2%.”<br>

  The soft core CPI for May is just one data point, and it follows a string of solid readings earlier in the year. Still, we see a clear signal in this report that policymakers should take on board. <br>
  The message is that households are squeezed, and businesses are responding by cutting prices. May saw broad price declines across both goods and service categories considered non-essential for consumers – electronics, personal care, clothes, recreational services. <br>
  One of former Fed Chair Alan Greenspan’s favorite indicators to gauge the direction of the economy was men’s underwear — with lower sales indicating consumers were reining in spending. His theory was that if individuals were skimping on necessities, the economy was not headed for better times. <br>
  May’s CPI report provides <b><u>some interesting clues on that front: Prices in the category that includes men’s underwear declined by the most in six months – while prices of men’s suits saw their sharpest increase since April 2022. Rising demand for suits could indicate people returning to work in offices, or are interviewing for new jobs – a sign of labor-market slack. At the same time, demand for men’s underwear may be waning. </b></u><br>
  We see these as signals of a slowing economy. Accordingly, we’re revising down our for core CPI forecast for this year, to 3.6% in 4Q vs. our prior expectation of 3.8%.


source: JC
date: 2024-06-17
contents:
  <b><font size ="5">China still need to see new stimulus coming in"</font></b>
  Retail sales in May posted a 3.75 increase, higher than April's 2.3%. The acceleration in retail sales was the first since November.<br>
  China's industrial production slowed to 5.6% in May 24 from 6.7% in April. <br>
  Property investment from January to May tumbled 10% YoY with the 9.8% drop in the first four months, Housing slump deepened in May and triggered new calls for the government to pump cash and credit into the economy.<br>
  China's growth remains "highly uneven, with exports and new energy-related capex as the drivers while consumption and property as the drags". Since households have been reluctant to spend, China as turned to export-led growth instead. A factor boom helped offset the housing slump and kept economic growth on track. <br>


source: Bloomberg
date: 2024-06-18
contents:
  中國證監會發布深化科創板改革的八條措施，包括支持上市公司開展產業鏈併購整合、研究優化做市商機制等，有望為中國版那斯達克注入新的活力。港股恒生指數四個交易日以來首度上漲，而在措施公佈之前已經收盤的A股市場略顯疲弱，上證綜指繼續徘徊在3000點整數關口上方。<br>
  證監會在A股收盤後發布的新聞稿稱，將提高科創板上市公司併購重組估值包容性，支持收購優質未盈利「硬科技」企業。此外，還將優化新股發行定價機制，試點調整適用新股定價高價剔除比例，優化股債融資制度，並加強交易監管，研究優化科創板做市商機制、盤後交易機制等。<br>
  周三早間，證監會主席吳清在陸家嘴論壇上發表主題演講，已提到將發布深化科創板改革的措施，但未公佈具體細節。吳清並稱將積極創造條件，吸引更多中長期資本進入資本市場，以及支持相關上市公司重組合併，強化高頻量化交易的監測等。<br>
  港股主要指數全線上漲，恒生指數收漲2.9%，創下三個多月以來最大漲幅；而A股走勢偏弱，上證綜指收跌0.4%，科創50指數跌0.7%。隔夜科技股引領標普500指數續創新高，令亞洲市場風險偏好升溫。<br>

  <b>中國版那斯達克</b><br>
  被視為中國版那斯達克的上海科創板，在2019年的陸家嘴論壇上正式開板並成為中國IPO註冊制的首塊試驗田。經過五年的時間，於科創板上市的573只股票總市值達到約5.2萬億元人民幣，囊括了中芯國際、寒武紀等中國主要晶片產業鏈公司。<br>
  不過，隨著中國疲弱的宏觀環境帶來整體市場的走弱、中國科技公司持續受到美國在獲取先進技術設備方面的阻撓等因素，上海科創板並未走出那斯達克一般的行情。科創板的代表指數科創50自2020年7月有數據以來下跌將近一半，那斯達克100指數同期漲逾80%。<br>
  面對A股市場的動盪，中國監管層今年連續出台政策以提振信心，並在4月時隔十年再次出台資本市場指導性文件，一度帶動上證綜指反彈至3200點附近。此後，由於中國經濟復甦之路頗顯波折，地緣局勢、聯儲會降息預期等也不斷干擾市場風險偏好，A股近期再度打響3000點「保衛戰」。<br>
  中國證監會周二發布以強監管、防風險推動資本市場高質量發展的文章，提出必須落實好監管要「長牙帶刺」，並表示將維護資本市場穩健運行擺在突出位置，加快補齊發行上市、股份減持、退市、交易、行業機構監管等各領域短板弱項。<br>


source: Bloomberg
date: 2024-06-20
contents:
  the People’s Bank of China Governor Pan Gongsheng hammered home the message that <b>the central bank is veering away from a traditional way of stimulating the economy</b>. 
  Speaking Wednesday at the Lujiazui Forum, Pan defined China’s monetary policy stance as “accommodative,” while rejecting the idea that the PBOC is laying the groundwork for quantitative easing and acknowledging that credit growth will naturally slow down.
  It appears that Pan is drawing a fine line between policy being supportive and expansionary. The monetary authority will likely keep interest rates low and liquidity sufficient. At the same time, it’s determined to move away from the decades-long trajectory of fast credit expansion, which has led to a debt-reliant growth model that no longer suits China’s maturing economy.<br>
  That the PBOC is accepting slow credit expansion as a new norm was clear from the speech: “Growth of money and credit has shifted from supply constraints to demand constraints,” he said, adding that the emphasis shouldn’t remain on quantitative growth. The PBOC is focusing more on efficient use of existing funds, Pan also said, noting that it’s hard to keep credit growth above 10% when real estate-related demand is shrinking.<br>
   
  The latest data have laid bare the cooling credit impulse. Both broad (M2) and narrow (M1) money supply slumped in May, while the central bank’s balance sheet, which includes various lending facilities, contracted 6% this year through the end of May, indicating a less expansionary stance.<br>
  The PBOC is still supporting borrowers of the real economy, even though it has refrained from cutting the key policy rate this year. The average lending rate for new corporate loans stood at 3.73% in March, 22 basis points lower than a year ago. Mortgage rates saw even bigger discounts as the PBOC lowered the five-year loan prime rate in February and removed a nationwide floor in May.<br>
  There’s probably another reason behind the PBOC’s measured stance. China is on track to reach its official target of around 5% growth this year thanks to strong momentum from exports-led industrial activity, meaning no rush to step up easing.<br>
  China may also want to preserve policy space in light of a possible escalation of trade tensions in the run-up to the US elections. While Pan rejected the idea that the PBOC’s potential bond trading practice — also floated in the Wednesday speech — would amount to a QE, it definitely adds to the central bank’s already-diverse toolkit.<br>
  After all, bond bulls were not very disappointed: China’s 10-year pond futures finished at another record.<br>


source: UBS
date: 2024-06-20
contents:
  <b>Look for AI enablers.</b> Like past technology cycles, significant investment
  in the underlying infrastructure is required in the early phase. This means
  companies that provide the backbone for AI development, ranging from
  semiconductor production to chip design, cloud and data centers, and
  companies involved in power supply are currently well placed given visible
  earnings growth profiles and strong competitive positioning. While US
  lawmakers have introduced a new bipartisan bill seeking to ban chipmakers
  from buying Chinese-made chip equipment for use in the US, robust AI-linked
  demand remains the biggest driver for the segment. Overall, we expect USD
  331 billion in annual capital expenditure for the enabling layer by 2027.<br>
  <b>Big tech companies are at the forefront of AI growth.</b> AI investment
  has been led by financially strong companies, with high-quality earnings,
  strong profitability, and healthy cash flows. This financial stability reduces
  the risk of speculative bubbles, in our view, and it means that megacaps
  are core to the AI story. We expect the AI market to be dominated by an
  oligopoly of vertically integrated “foundries” and monolithic players along
  the value chain, covering chips, cloud computing, and generative AI models
  and applications.<br>
  <b>Consider structured investments for defensive positioning. </b>Options
  or structures with capital preservation features can be an effective way toposition for potential gains in AI-related names, while managing sentiment,<br>
  valuation, and idiosyncratic risks. Such strategies at an index level can also
  help investors mitigate potential macro and geopolitical risks.<br>
  With AI demand remaining robust and the technology likely to disrupt and
  transform industries in the years to come, we think it is important for investors
  to ensure they’re sufficiently invested. In fact, given the size of some of the
  largest AI companies, investors may consider weightings more akin to those
  of certain country equity markets than to those of other companies.<br>


source: Bloomberg
date: 2024-06-20
contents:
  PBOC, acknowledgment that the monetary authority is looking into trading government bonds in the secondary market as a way to regulate liquidity. That responds to <b>Xi's directive to "enrich the monetary policy toolbox" and "gradually increase government bond buying and selling in central bank open market operation".</b><br>


source: HKET
date: 2024-06-20
contents:
  <b>維他奶 Sales Performance</b>: Mainland China attached substaintial growth in operating profit, driven by disciplined sales execution and improved organizational capabilities. <br>
  Vitasoy also achieved revenue growth in the Hong Kong operation compared with last year, primarily due to successful product innovation -- one of vitasoy's core business strengths -- and the return to nromal trading of the Vitaland school business. <br>
  There Australia and New Zealand business did no perform to expectation, however, as a result of protracted manufacturing attainment challenges, intensified price competition and high logistics cost in a tight supply environment. These issues are currently being addressed with a high sense of urgency. <br>
  In ASEAN markets, Singapore revenue was on a par with last year, as growing export tofu sales were offset by soft local demand and slower beverage sales in preparation for our switch to a new beverages distributor.  Vitasoy's Philippines joint-venture business grew strongly in both the multi-serve and on-the-go platforms. <br>
  <b>Financial Highlights - for the year ended 31 March 2024</b><br>
  Group revenue was HK$6,217m, increased by 1% y/y<br>
  Group's gross profit HK$3,111m, increased by 3% y/y, mainly driven by higher selling prices and lower trade promotional expenses, partially offset by the impact of unfavorable foreign exchange movements and sales mix.<br>
  Gross profit margin increased to 50% (last year:48%) <br>
  EBITDA was HK$685 m, an increase of 10% y/y, This was mainly driven by the higher gross profit contribution and effective cost rationalisation in the operation, partly offset by the cessation of COVID-19-related goverment subsidies. Net of current impact and the COVID-19 subsidies, EBITDA increased 27%.<br>
  Profit from operations was HK$185m, and increase of 79% (last year HK$104m),  Net Net of current impact and the COVID-19 subsidies, EBITDA increased 392%<br>
  Profit attributable to Equity Shareholders of the Company was HK$116m (last year HK$46m), representing an increase of 155% y/y.<br>
  Dividend of HK$0.063 per shares has been proposed.<br>
  The share price dropped 1.98% in the day of result announcement.


source: familyofficehk.gov.hk
date: 2024-06-20
contents:
  <b>Is a family office required  to be licensed under SFC's ordinance</b><br>
  The issue of whether a single family office is required to be licensed under the Ordinance is determined by reference to three key factors, all of which must be present in order to give rise to a licensing obligation:<br>
  firstly, the services provided by the family office constitute one or more regulated activity as defined under the Ordinancem;[ e.g. dealing in securities , advice in securities, assets management...<br>
  secondly, the family office is carrying on a business in the provision of such services; and <br>
  thirdly, the business is carried on in Hong Kong.<br>

  In determining whether certain asset management activities amount to a regulated activity, the definition of Type 9 regulated activity contains an intra-group carve-out for a single family office where it provides such services solely to its related entities, which are defined as its wholly owned subsidiaries, its holding company which holds all its issued shares or that holding company’s other wholly owned subsidiaries.<br>

  What amounts to “carrying on a business in Hong Kong” is not defined in the Ordinance and will need to be determined by reference to the facts of each case, including whether the person is performing an occupation or a duty which requires attention; the activity involves continuity; the activity is capable of making profit; and the activity was carried out for the purpose of making profit. <br>
  <b>A genuine single family office arrangement, established to serve the investment needs of members of a single family, which is not being run as a business (i.e. not receiving any income, other than reimbursement of operating expenses from the family) or have the pursuit of profit as its business objective, should not in the ordinary course be considered as carrying on a business from a licensing perspective. It is also not the SFC’s intent to extend its regulatory oversight to this type of single family office setup.</b>


source: Bloomberg
date: 2024-06-25
contents:
  <b>Logistics hubs</b> that were built in anticipation of a long-lasting boom in e-commerce, manufacturing and food storage are losing tenants, forcing building owners to slash rents and shorten lease terms. Shares of real estate investment trusts that own China commercial properties have plummeted, and some of their managers expect their rental income to fall further. <br>
  Average vacancy rates at logistics properties in east and north China are approaching 20%, the highest in years, according to real estate consultancies. More warehouses are being built, which is making the problem worse. “We are looking at <b>a supply glut in logistics and industrial properties in China</b>,” said Xavier Lee, an equity analyst at Morningstar who covers the real—estate sector.<br>
  A few institutions are contemplating divestments of their worst-performing assets before rents fall further. Others intend to wait out the downturn and expect to make money in the long run. <br>
  “The best locations are still resilient,” said Hank Hsu, CEO and co-founder of Forest Logistics Properties, which owns warehouses and distribution centers at major transportation hubs in Beijing, Shanghai, Wuhan and other Chinese cities.  <br>
  Six-year-old Forest Logistics has about $2.5 billion in assets under management from investors that include private equity firms, insurance companies and pension funds. It counts Chinese e-commerce giant JD.com Inc., courier SF Express, and multinational consumer products makers among its customers. <br>
  Hsu said the recent market weakness hasn’t deterred his firm’s expansion plans, and it is planning to build another logistics facility in the southern Greater Bay area in the coming months. “We will keep deploying capital in China in the next one to two years because we consider it a golden opportunity,” he added.  <br>


source: Bloomberg
date: 2024-06-25
contents:
  The warehouse vacancy rate in east China — where many logistics properties are clustered — climbed to 19.2% in the first quarter, according to data from Cushman & Wakefield. The overall vacancy rate nationwide was 16.5%, thanks in part to the better performing southern region.<br>
  The situation in China contrasts with the US and other logistics markets in Asia. In the US, vacancies have increased at industrial properties and warehouses in some parts of the country, but they are at mid-single-digit percentage rates that are below historical averages, and rents are still rising. In Asia, logistics assets in South Korea, Japan and Australia are enjoying high occupancies and rent growth. <br>

  <b>China’s commercial real estate sector</b> was a bright spot through much of the country’s housing downturn that began in 2021. It is now feeling the effects of spending cutbacks by consumers and businesses. <br>
  The softening in the logistics and industrial sectors is happening alongside an office property slump that is playing out in major cities including Beijing and Shanghai. Both slumps also partly the result of overbuilding that was powered by the large sums of money that poured into commercial real estate when interest rates, borrowing and construction costs were low.  <br>arehouses that were built to house e-commerce fulfillment centers, giant refrigerators for chilled or frozen produce, and spaces for businesses to hold their components and manufactured goods aren’t being utilized as much as their owners hoped. China’s domestic e-commerce growth has been sluggish, as shoppers have become thriftier. The country’s online penetration rate for retail sales is already relatively high at 30%.<br>
  Heightened geopolitical tensions are prompting companies to shift some of their manufacturing offshore, to cater to end-customers that want to reduce their reliance on China. That and a slowdown in cross-border trade have also reduced businesses’ need for storage facilities in mainland China.


source: Bloomberg
date: 2024-06-25
contents:
  Mapletree Logistics Trust, another Singapore-listed REIT, has also been having a difficult time in China. Rents across its 43 properties in the country fell 10% in the first three months of 2024, and some tenants have fallen behind on their rent payments. The trust has maintained the occupancy of its China logistics assets at around 93%.  <br>
  Ng Kiat, the Mapletree REIT’s CEO, said on an April earnings call that the China environment will remain volatile and uncertain for the next 12 months. The trust is focusing on tenant retention and looking to sell some of its poorest performing China assets, she added. “We are trying to get greater clarity on whether we are seeing the bottom. But I don’t think we are seeing it now. We’ll have to wait for a while,” Ng said. Mapletree declined to comment. <br>


source: Bloomberg
date: 2024-06-27
contents:
  Lingering geopolitical risks, insufficient policy stimulus and the failure of the property market to bottom out anytime soon are the <b>three major impediments for</b> investors to take positions in Chinese stocks, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co.<br>
  Geopolitics will be a major risk factor in late 3Q-4Q, wrote JPMorgan strategists including Pedro Martins and Wendy Liu<br>
  The bank noted rising risks on US-China trade tensions following recent tariff hikes by the US and the EU and framed the debates between Donald Trump and Joe Biden as bear-biased for emerging markets
  Strategists also flagged China’s bank lending slowdown to a new historical low and the PBOC’s caution in easing monetary policy<br>
  House prices, home sales, starts and real estate investment recorded steepening declines last month, suggesting policy relaxation has not been effective in restoring market demand
  JPMorgan holds “tactical overweight” call for China stocks<br>
  Foreign institutional investors can still add 1.36% of China exposure to mimic historical tactical buying episodes<br>
  MSCI China forward PE still has 13% to fully mean revert to its 15-year average


source: Bloomberg
date: 2024-06-27
contents:
  根据新华社报道，中国中央委员会将于7月15日至18日举行第三次全体会议，预计将就一系列经济议题制定长期政策。两个月前，投资者基于对改革和经济救助计划的预期而热切买入，现在他们开始卖出，因为预计不会马上看到经济利好。<br>
  MSCI中国指数周四大跌，较5月20日高点跌逾10%，进入技术性回调。这给此次会议的成果设下了高门槛。<br>
  三中全会历来侧重于经济改革问题，往往更受投资者关注。尽管如此，自中国股市20世纪90年代初创立以来，上证综指在三中全会之后一周和一个月的表现经常乏善可陈。<br>
  当然，这并不意味着这次会议不重要。事后来看，像1993年那次（强调从计划经济转向市场经济）会议奠定了数十年稳健增长的基础。尽管如此，会后声明很可能“不会提出任何关于实施的建议，让人看不出优先事项以及改革之间的矛盾将如何解决，”凯投宏观首席亚洲经济学家Mark Williams上周在报告中写道。因此，“最起码可能需要几个月的时间才能清楚地知道会上做出的承诺是否重要。”<br>
  摩根大通周三在报告中称，即将召开的全会不太可能在经济决策方面带来重大惊喜或者构思更新。“过去三四十年中，每当三中全会有政策创新时，总是伴随着最高领导层的更迭，”该行首席中国经济学家朱海斌等人指出。他们表示，这次会议很可能会“重申由2017年的十九大制定、2022年的二十大强化的蓝图”。<br>
  多数华尔街分析师预计中国将宣布温和的改革措施，尤其是财政方面的改革，可能会让资金紧张的地方政府分到更高比例的收入，和/或解决地方政府的债务问题。摩根士丹利认为，高层可能推动变革的其他领域包括社会福利。上个月，中国国家主席习近平强调从就业、增收、住房、托幼养老等领域找准改革的发力点和突破口。虽然这些改革可能有助于改善长期增长前景，但可能不会给股市带来立竿见影的刺激。<br>
  在22V Research LLC驻纽约的高级董事总经理兼中国研究主管Michael Hirson的中国联系人中，几乎无人期待“这次会议会带来真正重大的改革”。<br>
  尽管如此，鉴于预期较低，股市表现改善前景“倾向于上行”，Hirson写道。


source: Bloomberg
date: 2024-07-08
contents:
  China ETFs See 5th Week of Outflows on Economy, US Vote Concerns<br>
  Investors continue to pull cash out of China, driving outflows across US exchange-traded funds tracking Chinese equities for a fifth week amid concerns over the state of the economy and the election outcome in the US. <br>
  The world’s second-largest economy recorded net outflows of $48.9 million from this group of ETFs last week. The KraneShares CSI China Internet fund lost $61.3 million, iShares China Large-Cap ETF saw withdrawals of $23.79 million and Xtrackers Harvest CSI 300 China A-Shares ETF lost $23.70 million in the week that ended on July 5.<br>
  Investors point to US elections impacting sentiment, as a Republican administration “might be more hawkish on China compared to whatever the Democrat administration might be, so it’s possibly sentiment around new tariffs and trade agreements,” said Andy Wester, senior investment analyst at Proficio Capital Partners in Newton, Massachusetts.<br>

  A rally in Chinese equities that began earlier this year has lost momentum due to an uneven economic recovery and growing concern over likely geopolitical risks from elections in Europe and the US. Later this month, investors will be closely following the Third Plenum, the July 15-18 meeting that will gather some 400 government bigwigs, military chiefs, provincial bosses and academics in Beijing to steer the country’s political and economic course. <br>
  “I never like to mix politics with portfolios, but it’s always a wildcard, especially with the constant headline tensions between the two countries,” said Todd Sohn, an ETF analyst at Strategas Securities. “China’s government can always appear to bring about regulations overnight.”<br>
  Moreover, government-backed stimulus has had only a minimal impact on the nation’s ailing property sector and consumer confidence, doing little to boost the nation’s growth prospects. And sentiment remains fragile, with the CSI 300 index erasing all of its gains this year, and the Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index trading below 3,000 points — a key psychological level — since June 21.<br>

  “The primary issue with China is it’s a high volatility machine, and while there was a nice momentum run recently, investors should be aware Chinese equities tend to see this historically, with large chunks of gains being given back in quick order,” Sohn added. .<br>
  While China saw the biggest outflows, emerging markets in general drew some investors back over improving risk-appetite. Inflows to U.S.-listed emerging market ETFs that invest across developing nations as well as those that target specific countries totaled $272.9 million in the week ended July 5, compared with losses of $194.6 million the week before, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. So far this year, inflows have totalled $9.17 billion..<br>


source: Bloomberg
date: 2024-07-09
contents:
  China Vanke could repay short-term debt despite its warning that it expects to report a 1H24 loss of 7-9 billion yuan, we calculate. It reported 66 billion yuan of short-term debt at end-2023 but against this, it had sales collections of about 119 billion yuan in 1H24; achieved asset disposals of 10 billion yuan during the half; and raised about 60 billion yuan, including a 20 billion-yuan syndicated loan led by China Merchants Bank. The developer paid off about 50 billion yuan of debt during the half.


source: Bloomberg
date: 2024-07-10
contents:
  百度创始人李彦宏称，第一季度武汉全无人驾驶订单比例已超55%，4月份上升至70%，预计未来几个季度将快速上升至100%。预计在武汉2025年全面进入盈利期。实现盈利的背后，“萝卜快跑”第6代无人车整车成本相较于5代车下降60%，价格为20万元。<br>
  百度萝卜快跑的商业化进程也在稳步推进。截至目前，萝卜快跑已经在包括北京、武汉、重庆、深圳、上海在内的11个城市，开放了载人测试运营服务，并在其中的几个城市展开了全无人自动驾驶出行服务测试。<br>
   “Baidu is one of the leading autonomous driving system providers. Its key advantage is that it’s open to many brands and can operate in China, where the government promotes autonomous driving.”<br>
  Baidu’s Apollo Go to break even in Wuhan in 2024 and become profitable in 2025 with fleet expansion.<br>
  Autonomous driving will turn into a key trade in the coming three months, aided by Tesla Inc’s (NASDAQ:TSLA) launch of its robotaxi next month.”<br>


source: Bloomberg
date: 2024-07-11
contents:
  美联储鸽派人物代表——芝加哥联储主席古尔斯比（Austan Goolsbee）周四称赞了最新发布的CPI报告，并称美国通胀看起来已经回到了通往2%的轨道上，因此他对“降息时机即将成熟”的信心愈发强烈。<br>

  “我的观点是，这就是通往2%的道路，”他在采访中说。<br>

  古尔斯比表示，周四稍早公布的政府报告显示，6月消费者物价指数（CPI）超预期放缓，这是“极好的”消息。再加上5月的数据，这一系列数据表明今年早些时候强于预期的通胀数据只是“路上的颠簸”，而不是一个方向性的逆转。<br>

  具体数据显示，美国6月未季调CPI年率录得3.0%，远低于市场预期的3.1%，回落至去年6月以来最低水平。6月季调后CPI月率录得-0.1%，为2020年5月以来首次录得负值。<br>

  剔除食品和能源成本的核心CPI同比上涨3.3%，低于市场预期的3.4%，回落至2021年4月以来最低水平。6月核心CPI环比上涨0.1%，为2021年8月以来最低水平，市场预期为0.2%。<br>

  此外，周四的报告还显示，住房和租金通胀出现了期待已久的缓解，他说这“非常令人鼓舞”。<br>

  不过，古尔斯比拒绝透露他是否会在美联储7月30日至31日的政策会议上支持降息。但他确实表示，美联储将政策利率稳定在5.25%-5.5%的区间（自去年7月以来一直如此），实际上意味着央行正在越来越多地给经济踩刹车。<br>

  他补充说，“如果你认为经济过热，就会采取如此严格的限制措施。但在我看来，这不是经济过热的样子。”<br>

  古尔斯比还说，劳动力市场虽然依然强劲，但正在降温，感觉不像是衰退的开始。不过他确实看到了一些经济正在放缓的警告信号，包括上个月失业率上升至4.1%，以及违约率上升。<br>


  但他强调，由于疫情颠覆了经济，很难确切知道这些警告信号可能预示着什么。<br>


  古尔斯比表示，很明显的一点是，金融环境“限制性很强”，在通胀下降的情况下保持利率稳定，美联储“无可否认”是在收紧政策。

  他进一步指出，一旦美联储首次降息，接下来是否会进一步降息，以及降息速度如何，将取决于数据。<br>


source: Reading
date: 2024-07-14
contents:
  China's GDP expended 4.7% in the second quarter from same period a year earlier, undershooting economists' median forecast of 5.1%. It was partly due to Retail sales rose at the slowest pace since Dec 2022.  <br>
  Economists have called on this week's conclave to address the property downturn, boost technology self-sufficiency and relieve local fiscal strains during the four-day gathering. 
  <br>
  中國6月出口連續第三個月成長，貿易順差創至少1990年以來最高，但通縮陰雲不散，社融增速創紀錄新低，凸顯需求低迷。周一將出爐的二季度GDP料放緩，投資者聚焦三中全會是否會出台提振信心的新舉措。中國央行創設臨時正逆回購操作，這一新工具料將收窄利率走廊、弱化中期借貸便利(MLF)地位。國家金監總局繼央行之後也為狂熱的債市降溫，部分地方分局據悉提示轄區內銀行縮短債券久期。<br>


source: CPC
date: 2024-07-16
contents:
  Jerome Powell said recent data has boosted confidence that inflation is heading toward the Feb's 2% goal, possibly paving the way for a near-term rate cut. Mary Daly echoed the sentiment and said risks to the labor market and price stability are coming into better balance. <br>
  Xi's economic redirect toward EVs, solar and semiconductors is helping China navigate its property slump. If Beijing can keep batting away US-led containment efforts, Bloomberg Economics expects the hi-tech sector to account for 19% of GDP by 2026, up from 11% in 2018.


source: Bloomberg
date: 2024-07-16
contents:
  A Trump stimulus package with fiscal expansion would be positive for Japanese equities and help the global economy remain resilient, as well as keeping the yen week, said Hideyuki Ishiguro, Chief strategist at Nomura Asset Management. 
  <br>
  Under Trump's agenda of interest rate cuts, tax reduction, and tariffs, it is estimated that funds will be diversified in to sectors beyond technology, such as oil sectors and domestic exports. Additional, looking back at Trump's tenure, a weak US dollar has been a byproduct of this policies, as weak dollar can boost domestic exports.


source: Bloomberg
date: 2024-07-16
contents:
  Morgan Stanley issued a research report expecting Baidu, Inc. (BIDU.US)'s 2FQ25 core revenue to be roughly flat YoY, but advertising growth continued to be weak, with a 2% decline expected due to a weak macro-economy and AI transition.<br>
  In addition, Morgan Stanley forecasted the Group's cloud business growth may remain at 15%, while core non-GAAP operating margin will rise by 2%, with margins broadly stable.<br>
  As Morgan Stanley maintained a cautious stance on Baidu's core advertising recove<br>ry and believed that there will not be a turning point in the near future, the broker lowered its 2024-2025 core revenue/ non-GAAP operating margin forecasts for the Group by 1-2%, and trimmed its target price from US$125 to US$115, with rating kept at Equalweight.<br>
  深耕无人驾驶领域11年后，百度在武汉秀了一把硬实力。<br>
  7月10日，“萝卜快跑订单疯涨”登上微博热搜，同时#萝卜快跑有望在无人驾驶网约车商业模式上实现盈利##萝卜快跑7.1公里只要4.99元#等相关新闻话题近日频频引发讨论。<br>
  具体原因，据了解，最近“萝卜快跑”在武汉市全无人订单量也迎来了爆发式增长，单日单车峰值超20单，达到传统出租车司机平均日单量水平。<br>
  随着“萝卜快跑”、“无人驾驶出租车”等话题引发广泛关注，同时带动百度股价持续上扬。
  从7月9日至11日，百度美股在3个交易日内涨幅接近15%，市值增长44.65亿美元。百度集团总市值也重新超过携程。
  谁也没料到，比起“亲儿子”文心一言，曾数次传出要被放弃的无人驾驶，为低迷许久的百度股价，带来了近期内的最大幅度上涨。<br>
  作为百度的自动驾驶服务平台，萝卜快跑从2019年开始陆续在全国多地开放载人测试运营服务，到如今终于跑出了加速度，并在武汉这座城市最显成效。
  对于百度而言，如果说11年前，百度押注的L4无人驾驶方案更像是天方夜谭，那么十年后今天萝卜快跑的表现，更像是在诉说可以触及到的未来，也让其看到了投入回报的希望。<br>
  萝卜快跑，终于要带领百度起飞了吗？
  01 “苕萝卜”火了
  谁也没想到，第一个规模化商用无人驾驶出租车投放运营的市场，不是北上广深，而是大武汉。
  具体原因，据媒体报道，“萝卜快跑”在武汉市全无人订单量迎来了爆发式增长，单日单车峰值超20单，达到传统出租车司机平均日单量水平。<br>
  爆单之后，“萝卜快跑”、“无人驾驶出租车”等话题引发广泛关注，同时背后的百度也被推向前台，并带动起股价快速上涨。
  7月12日盘中，百度集团股价报99.75港元，涨2.62%，总市值约2895.26亿港元。值得一提的是，其股价已经连续两日上涨。7月10日，百度盘中一度涨超12%，最高报97.15港元/股，为过去一个多月以来最高点。
  与此同时，资金也竞逐A股无人驾驶概念， 同日市场网约车、无人驾驶等板块大涨，进而带动各类和“车”相关的板块上涨。
  实际上，萝卜快跑不单单只有无人驾驶的新鲜噱头，在试行过程中，“萝卜快跑”取得了显著成绩。
  尽管从驾驶体验看对于萝卜快跑的吐槽，主要集中于行驶慢、过于保守等几点，武汉市民甚至直接称呼萝卜快跑为“苕萝卜”（苕：傻、憨，武汉方言）。<br>
  坦率说，这很难成为差评，毕竟在流传着“公交车最速传说”“坐公交的我，发现尺子变短了”等段子的武汉，萝卜快跑甚至成为了“交规天谴”——只惩罚不遵守交规的人。
  综合评价方面，大多数市民对乘坐全无人驾驶车出行服务的满意度极高（萝卜快跑 APP 的用户满意度评价达4.9分，其中5分满分好评的占比高达94.19%）。一是价格非常便宜，10公里的车费只有普通出租车车费的一半左右；二是24小时全天候运营，不用担心打不到车；乘坐体验更好，不存在拒载、绕路等情况，无纠纷等优势。
  好评如潮下，目前萝卜快跑累计订单量已经突破600+万单，以至于使得萝卜快跑的盈利预期较市场预期大大提前。<br>
  今年5月，百度在Apollo Day官宣，萝卜快跑预计到2024年底武汉要实现营收平衡，到2025年进入全面盈利期。
  在世界人工智能大会2024上，萝卜快跑宣布今年将实现武汉“全覆盖”的计划，并投入1000辆新一代量产无人车，在武汉实现7x24小时全无人运营。<br>
  02 爆单背后：百度的十年豪赌与摇摆
  萝卜快跑上了热搜，是因为成绩有点好，跑得有点快。不过背后的公司百度，却一度被业内调侃为“无人驾驶驾驶是起了个大早，赶了个晚集”。
  2013年，百度就开始布局无人驾驶，成立了智能驾驶事业群组，当年在上海车展发布“Apollo计划”，到2017年百度推出自动驾驶开放平台Apollo。
  “三年商用，五年量产，十年改变出行方式。”这是时任百度无人驾驶负责人王劲向业界公开喊话。
  作为当之无愧的“新质生产力”，叙事的制高点和国家产业政策的扶持力度，在需要的时候是少不了的。但真正的障碍是无人驾驶的造价高昂。以激光雷达为例，现在的价格已降到单颗500-1000美元，过去的价格则可能是十倍。百度第五代无人车的成本是48万，而第六代无人车成本已经降到了20万，直接下降60%。以五年的运营周期来算，相比于前一代，第六代无人车每天可以节省100元。高昂的硬件成本成为了百度无人车量产的头号难关。
  此情况下，L4无人驾驶难以让百度一口吃成大胖子，以百度自动驾驶事业群寻求独立分拆未果为节点，王劲的无人车时代黯然结束。<br>
  2017年，百度重新调整无人驾驶业务，将L4以及L3进行整合，组建了现今的IDG智能驾驶事业群。同年，百度推出「Apollo计划」，主张开放旗下的无人驾驶技术，为车企智能驾驶开源赋能。Apollo的推出，是百度对自动驾驶的一次态度转变，从务虚转向务实，开始更「接地气」地寻求商业化合作。
  只不过百度还是太快了。根据中汽协的数据显示，2018年国内新能源汽车的渗透率仅为 4.54%，作为参考，刚刚过去的2023年里新能源渗透率达到了31.6%。整体大环境使然，各家车企忙于上半场电动化的开疆拓土，具有智能化前沿意识的车企更是少之又少，Apollo 的智驾开源无异于是在用大炮打蚊子。
  开源共享的商业化路子暂且难走，百度在2019年选择收缩量产智驾方案，将业务重心移到Robotaxi出行业务，而这一收缩，就错过了智能化的第一波浪潮。以至于在当前这个新能源汽车发展狂潮下，很多造车新势力和车企都宣传自己的智驾水平领先的大背景下，很多人不会想到百度，甚至会“忽略”百度。<br>
  直到如今，在武汉爆单之后，百度借助萝卜快跑以他傲视群雄的实力站在无人驾驶行业舞台中心。
  据公开媒体报道，百度副总裁、自动驾驶技术部总经理王云鹏称，Apollo第五代无人车各项成本总计48万元，且车辆可确保5年内的可靠运营，车的成本按5年分摊每天是263元。现役运行的车辆中大约需要300名安全员，武汉 “自动驾驶安全员”月薪为5000元至7000元。所有安全员一个月工资约170万元。
  为进一步缩减成本，今年5月，百度在 ApolloDay 宣布第六代无人车的成本降至 20 万元，且在四季度投放1000辆第六代无人车，实车安全员也将被取消，全部转为远程监控。届时经营效率可以大幅提高。<br>
  03 百度能靠萝卜快跑翻身吗？
  无人出租车的想象力在于，当下汽车资源是被极大浪费的。一方面，根据 Koen Frenken 和 Juliet Schor 的调查，私家车 95% 的时间要么处于堵车要么被放在停车场内；另一方面，绝大多数车祸的原因都是超速、酒驾、疲劳驾驶这样的人为因素。而搭载了完全自动驾驶技术的无人出租车既可以大幅提高汽车利用率，也被赋予绝对安全的权柄。
  这是一个兼具商业潜力和社会效益的事。
  据太平洋证券预测，在2025年和2030年，中国Robotaxi（无人驾驶出租车）的市场规模分别有望突破1.18万亿元和2.93万亿元。
  过去一段时间，社交媒体上对于无人出租车的讨论更多聚焦于“是否会替代1000万滴滴司机”上。但现实是，目前萝卜快跑在武汉投放的出租车数量只有400辆，至今的总单量也不过600万单，而2023年网约车的月订单量在8亿单。
  可以预测的是，无人出租车即便能替代传统出租车和网约车，也一定不会浓缩到几年。而对于参与到无人出租车的玩家们而言，最大的挑战在于技术和竞争。
  首先，新能源汽车比拼迈入下半场，AI大模型进入“拼应用”的阶段。未来车企或会“卷”自动驾驶，中国未来几年自动驾驶会实现井喷式增长。
  百度需要面对的不仅仅是包括小马智行在内的自动驾驶公司，还有特斯拉这样的整车厂以及包括如祺出行在内的网约车企业。
  其次在技术上，自动驾驶仍然需要解决长尾问题。简单说，即使技术上可以解决99%的道路场景问题，‌剩下的1%罕见或边缘场景才是真正的难点所在。无论是传统方案，还是目前最火的端到端，都不能解决这个问题。<br>
  因此，无人出租车跳票几乎是传统艺能。前不久，特斯拉就官宣无人出租车的推出时间再次推迟。
  作为中国无人驾驶行业的最佳代表，截至2024年，百度的萝卜快跑自动驾驶出行服务已开放至北京、上海、广州、深圳、武汉等10个城市，已经在武汉、北京、重庆、阳泉等城市开始商业化运营。‌
  但说到底，无人出租车业务的关键除了技术还有规模，前者未能突破，就难言绝对安全，也就难以实现后者。百度想要靠着萝卜快跑打好这场翻身仗，注定不是短时间的事。
  不过对于百度而言，手里的牌还足够多。去年百度李彦宏押注AI大模型，推出文心一言，迈出了在生成式AI领域的第一步。一年零一个月后，经历了从3.0版本到3.5，再到4.0版本的进化，文心一言大模型交出了如下成绩单：用户数突破2亿，API日均调用量突破2亿，服务的客户数达到8.5万，利用千帆平台开发的AI原生应用数超过19万。在最新发布的财报中，百度强调“生成式AI技术的稳步推进已成为公司业务的关键驱动力”。
  在这波AI浪潮里，百度的机会确实要远远胜过过去了。


source: Bloomberg
date: 2024-07-17
contents:
  Bloomberg Strategists say "without significant structural reforms to foster consumption-led growth and manage the demographic transition, China is likely to follow further in Japan's footsteps. Sustained low yields and sluggish economic performance will become the new norm." <b>
  The balance of Treasury bonds stood at 30.4 trillion yuan ($4.2 trillion) in May, out of China's 163.5 Trillion yuen bond market. <br>
  Tame inflation data in each of the last three months, combined with slowing US economic growth and a a rising unemployment rate, are leading to calls for the Feb to cut rates at tis upcoming policy meeting two weeks from now.<br>
  According to CME FEDWatch, the market has fully priced in a 25 basis point rate cut at the September meeting.


source: Bloomberg
date: 2024-07-17
contents:
  Asian Equities rose, joining a global rally as bets the Fed will soon start cutting interest rates fueled a rush into riskier corners of the market. <br>
  Risk-on appetite appears to be back in Asia after increasing chances of a Donald Trump presidency raised concerns over geopolitical and trade risk over the past few session. Optimism that the Feb will cut rates soon, alongside signs of US retail resilience, supported sentiment.  The risk-on sentiment drove a rotation into smaller US stocks -<b>the Russell 2000 index is up 12% in the last five session</b>, its best showing since April 2020.  <br>
  The strength of the equity market has been underpinned by optimism, the economy has withstood the worst of Feb tightening. <br>
  In commodities, gold hit another record after rallying almost 2% Tuesday to touch an all-time high of <b>$2,469.66 per ounce</b>.


date: 2024-07-17
contents:
  The US is mulling whether to impose a measure called the foreign direct  product rule, or FDPR, The rule lets the country impose controls on foreign-made products that use the tiniest amount of American Techonology. <br>
  The goal is to persuade allies, who have already restricted some shipments of key equipment, to limit their companies' ability to service and repair restricted gear that's already in China = which US firms are barred from doing.


source: Bloomberg
date: 2024-08-01
contents:
  China's PMI unexpectedly shrank for the first time in nine months in July. The Caixin/S&P Global manufacturing PMI contracted to 49.8 in July from 51.8 the previous month, missing analysts' forecasts of 51.5. That reinforced concerns about China's economic slowdown, with the official PMI manufacturing index released on Wednesday dropping to 49.4 from 49.5 in June. The 50-point mark separates growth from contraction.<br>
  The downturn contrasts with other parts of Asia including Taiwan, South Korea and Vietnam, which saw their manufacturing activities expand in July. <br>

  <b>The Caixin measure likely reflects weakening momentum in overseas shipments as it focuses on small and export-oriented firms. </b>
  Hong Kong stocks weakened after an unexpected contraction in China's manufacturing activity and weak home sales in July reignited growth concerns. <br>

  Weak demand and persistent deflation will continue weighing on Chinese share prices, with limited upside in the near term.  At least for the next six months, we're not seeing much upside. <br>


source: Reading
date: 2024-08-04
contents:
  US equities and bond yields fell in tandem on Friday (2 Aug), as weak job data fuel anxiety that the FEB has wait to long before cuting rates and that the US economy could be head for recession. <br>

  The US July employment report contained significant downside surprises, with nonfarm payrolls increased by only 114,000 and unemployment rate rising to 4.3%, up from 4.1% in the prior month and from a low of 3.4% as recently as May 2023. Average hourly earnings grew 0.2% month over month, and weekly hours worked declined, <b> indicating negative impactions for household income.


source: UBS/Bloomberg
date: 2024-08-04
contents:
  Japanese stocks extend loss on 5 Aug, but posititive structural drivers remain. The USDJPY was trading at 145.30 on 5 Aug morning, compared with nearly 162 just three weeks ago, as investors continued to cover their short yen positions.<br>
  UBS expect near-term stock market volatility to continue until the USDJPY stabilizes, with potential downward earnins revisions if the exchange rate stays below 150. <br>
  <b>UBS would adivse investors have exposure, as inflation, wage increase, and corporate governance reforms should remain positive for the market. While weaker seasonality in the September quarter and the US presidential election could also add uncertainty, we think banks and real estate names should remain key beneficiaries of rising policy rates in the country. <br>
  There’s been a massive capitulation of carry trade positions “with everyone running for the door at the same time,” said Nick Twidale, chief markets analyst at ATFX Global Markets. “These moves were initially triggered by the hike from the BOJ, but global growth concerns have added further fuel to the fire in the last couple of days and moves have become intense.”<br>
  The sudden appreciation in funding currencies-JPY has damaged the carry strategy, which typically involves traders borrowing at lower rates to invest in higher-yielding assets often in the emerging world. <br>
  Worries about US recession risk is a bad environment for carry traders, according to Alvin Tan, head of Asian currency strategy at Royal Bank of Canada in Singapore. 
  “Recession risk also means greater market volatility, hence carry trades being cut,” Tan said. “I think it could easily extend because we have been in a extended low vol environment for so long, over a year in fact.”


source: SINGTAO
date: 2024-08-04
contents:
  隨着美國上周五公佈7月非農就業人口增加11.4萬人，遠遜預期的17.5萬人，以及失業率升至4.3%，同樣遜預期的4.1%及創近3年新高，市場關注被視為預測經濟衰退100%準確的「薩姆規則」（Sahm Rule）已經觸發，並有意見批評聯儲局可能等待太久才開始減息。<bR>
  Sahm Rule-「薩姆規則」，即失業率3個月平均值比過去12個月低位高出0.5個百分點時，意味經濟已經處於衰退狀態。按照美國最新情況計算，5月及6月失業率分別報3.96%及4.05％，7月失業率亦升至4.3%，已較低位高出0.5個百分點，即已觸發薩姆規則及技術上陷入衰退。同時，薩姆規則亦成為了美國社交媒體X、facebook和Instagram的熱門話題，而且熱度遠超包括「AI」與「英偉達暴跌」在內的話題。


source: UBS
date: 2024-08-06
contents:
  Recession. the speed of the rise in unemployment gained particular attention, as it triggered the Sahm rule, by which since 1960 a recession has begun every time the three months average unemployment rate rose over 50bps from its low in prior 12 months.<br> 
  UBS belive investor concerns about a recession are overdone for server reasons:<br>
  (a) It can be a mistake to read too much into a single data release. It is possible that the weakness of the July jobs report was accentuated (强调；使突出；着重) /emphasized by hurrican Berl.<br>
  (b) The Sahm rule, which suggests that the rate of increase in unemployment is a harbinger/herald of recession, looks questionable under current circumstances.  <br>
  (c) While earning commentary suggested some slowdown in adversing, auto, industrials, and software, profit margins remain solid, suggesting that companies have little reason to commence job cuts. <br>
  (d) Consumers and consumer spending are still in decent shape. June retail sales and personal consumption expenditure data suggest spending is normalizing from an elevated level, not deterioratiing. Moreover, households are in good financial shape overall, with positive real income growth and average debt servicing costs that remain low relative to historical averages.<br>
  (e) Services sentiment is positive. <br>
  (f) The Federal Reserve has plenty of scope to support the economy and markets. Recent data has improved confidence that inflation is headed sustainably back toward the 2% target(通货膨胀正在可持续地回到2%的目标), freeing the Feb to focus more attention on supporting growth and employment. <br>
  (g) the promise of AI remains intact. Investors appear to have swung from rewarding companies for fast-rising capital spending, to becoming impatient with the pace of monetization.<br>
  (h) A further escalation of the Middle East conflict can still be avoided. 
  (i) The US election campaign could be a further source of volatility.


source: UBS
date: 2024-08-06
contents:
  What could trigger a downside scenario? This could happen by a variety of mechanisms:<br>
  (1) Future data demonstrates that jobs are being shed, adding to evidence that Feb policy has been too tight for too long. As more americans become fearful about losing their job, they could cut back spending to build up precautionary savings.<br>
  (2) AI Investment slows. AI investment has been driving both the fortunes of chipmakers, notable Nvidia, and the cloud operations of the likes of Microsoft, Amazon, and Alphabet. If top tech companies start announcing that they are scaling back capital spending plans, we would be concerned about enarings sustainablity. We would alos be discouraged by a slowing in the growth of cloud revenues. Finally, disappointments on expected advances in chip technology could also trigger downside for tech stocks.<br>
  (3) A miscalculation by either Isreal or Iran leads to a significant escalation in the Middle East, leading to higher globa risk premia, as investors fear potential disruptions to oil supplies.<br>
  In such a scenario, USB would expect global growth to fall sharply owing to weakness in consumer spending and labor markets, as well as a fall in AI-related investments. In response, we would expect central banks to cut rate swiftly, bringing monetary policy back into accomodatiave terrritory. The Feb would likely reduce rates well below the neutral policy rate, which we currently estimate to be arround 3%.


source: UBS
date: 2024-08-06
contents:
  Throughout 2024 UBS has reiterated the theme of quality in both bonds and equities. <br>
  In fixed income, UBS would expect quality bonds to deliver positive total returns in our base case, and they could rally even further if recessionary fears continue to mount. With cash interest rates likely to fall more quickly than UBS had previously expected, it remain important in our view for investors to deploy excess cash into medium-duration quality fixed income. <br>
  In equities, quality is an investment style that has historically outperformed as whole. Companies with strong balance sheets and a track record of earnings growth, as well as those that are exposed to structural growth drivers, should be relatively well positioned if cyclical fears mount.


source: HKET
date: 2024-09-03
contents:
  數碼通Smartone（00315）公布截至6月底全年業績，期內收入錄62.2億元，按年跌8%；純利4.7億元，按年增74.9%，主要是由於2023財年曾錄得2億元的預期信貸虧損，而2024財年則無此虧損。<br>

  數碼通每股賺42.6仙，建議派付末期息每股17.5仙，全年每股派32仙，按年持平。數碼通績前收報3.84元，以此推算，股息率8.3厘。<br>

  數碼通全年服務總收入錄45.1億元，按年跌1%；手機及配件銷售收入17.1億元，按年跌22%。截至6月底止，數碼通客戶人數達到271萬，按年淨增3.2萬或1%；流動服務月費計劃每月每戶平均收入（Average Revenue Per User，簡稱ARPU）為224元，按年相同。<br>

  行政總裁劉若虹稱，5G服務客戶滲透率上升至約40%，而5G服務的ARPU已達4G服務的兩倍。劉若虹提到，目前流動通訊行業經營環境充滿挑戰，競爭持續激烈，會繼續用高品質服務及網路，拓高端客戶群，料5G滲透率增加亦有所幫助。<br>

  劉若虹稱，近年ARPU一直承壓，雖然數碼通高端客戶ARPU穩定，但流動虛擬網絡營辦商（MVNO）等低端業務主要針對價格敏感用戶，由於競爭加劇，相關業務受壓。數碼通全年漫遊收入增長44%，達到6.1億元，6月底止，境外漫遊收入回復至疫情前水平的141%，劉若虹稱，會推物超所值產品吸客。<br>

  數碼通主席郭炳聯在業績報告再度談及頻譜徵費扣稅問題。郭炳聯指，去年數碼通頻譜費用已接近5.4億，超越稅後淨利潤的總額，此外，雖然這些費用過往均可用作扣稅，但稅務局如今卻認為其中一段時間的頻譜費用不可扣稅，公司對此立場表示強烈反對。<br>

  頻譜費不可扣稅 郭炳聯：無法理解<br>

  郭炳聯稱，其投得頻譜只可使用15年，可使用的年期有限，期間更不可買賣或使用頻譜作任何其他用途，此乃營運網絡必須的經營成本，無法理解該等成本為何不可用作扣稅。


source: HKET
date: 2024-09-03
contents:
  <b>美製造業新定單急跌 衰退憂慮增</b>

  美國8月ISM製造業指數回升至47.2，低於市場預期47.5（見表），再度引發市場對美國經濟衰退、甚至滯脹的憂慮。單次減息0.5厘的預期輕微升溫，利率期貨顯示，9月減息0.5厘的機率由上周33%升至最新近4成。<br>

  資金湧入債市避險，10年期國債息率跌穿3.9厘水平。經濟數據轉差亦拖累道指開市後下跌，截至昨晚11時15分，道指跌461點，報41101點；標指跌76點，報5572點；納指跌376點，報17336點。<br>

  資金避險 長債息失守3.9厘<br>

  除製造業PMI低於預期外，8月新定單指數亦降至44.6，進一步踏入收縮狀態，反映經濟持續轉差。期內生產指數跌至44.8，同樣與50榮枯綫有一段距離。即使就業指數回升至46，紓緩市場對勞動市場放緩的關注，但銷售價格指數升至54，高於預期52，也再次惹來滯脹憂慮。<br>

  ISM製造業業務委員會主席Timothy Fiore指，製造業活動仍處於收縮區域，但速度較上月較慢，然而需求持續疲弱，產出下降，積壓定單指數也出現強勁收縮。此外，由於貨幣政策和總統選舉的不確定性，企業不願意投入資本和庫存，令需求仍然低迷。<br>

  另一方面，美國8月標普製造業PMI終值由初值48下修至47.9，低於預期48.1。<br>

  瑞銀財富管理亞太區投資總監辦公室預期，聯儲局會在9月開始減息，至年底累減100基點，指美國經濟處於軟着陸軌道上，近期經濟數據也緩解對衰退的擔憂，但未來關注焦點依然是重量級經濟數據及地緣政治風險。周五（6日）公布的就業報告及11月初總統大選等個別事件，仍可能令市場波動再次急升。<br>

  摩通：縱減息 美股升勢難延續<br>


  但摩根大通認為，即使儲局啟動減息周期，美股升勢也未必能延續，可能會在高位停滯不前。因為即使放鬆貨幣政策，也只是對經濟成長放緩的應對措施，是種「反應性」降息。此外，9月通常是美股歷史上表現較差的月份，故季節性因素會成為另一障礙。<br>

  富達國際投資總監Radhika Surie則看好科技行業，指現時是入市良機。因為科技股近期經歷動盪，全因受到消費需求疲弱及AI基建投資回報爭議兩大因素影響，導致波動性增加。但該行坦言，AI仍是帶動市場走勢的重要因素，隨着科企估值變得吸引，對行業今年表現持樂觀看法。又提到投資AI主題，可選擇處於有利位置且有能力長期持續獲利的企業，例如雲端服務供應商、軟件和IT服務公司中不乏這類企業，惟在半導體和硬件方面具吸引力的選擇相對較少。<br>


source: CEIC Data
date: 2024-09-03
contents:
  中国 不良贷款率，
  2005 - 2024 | 季 | % | CEIC Data，
  中国的不良贷款率在06-01-2024达1.6%，相较于03-01-2024的1.6%有所下降。中国不良贷款率数据按季更新，03-01-2005至06-01-2024期间平均值为1.7%，共78份观测结果。该数据的历史最高值出现于03-01-2005，达12.4%，而历史最低值则出现于09-01-2011，为0.9%。CEIC提供的中国不良贷款率数据处于定期更新的状态，数据来源于CEIC Data，数据归类于世界趋势数据库的全球经济数据 – 表：不良贷款率：季度。


source: 中國新聞網
date: 2024-08-09
contents:
  <b>二季度末中國商業銀行不良貸款“雙降”</b>
  中國新聞網 2024-08-09 22:38:18 46万
  　　中新社北京8月9日電 (記者 王恩博)中國國家金融監管總局9日公佈，2024年二季度末，中國銀行業金融機構本外幣資產總額433.1萬億元(人民幣，下同)，同比增長6.6%；商業銀行不良貸款餘額和不良貸款率“雙降”。<br>

  　　數據顯示，中國銀行業金融服務持續加強。二季度末，銀行業金融機構用於小微企業的貸款餘額78萬億元，其中單戶授信總額1000萬元及以下的普惠型小微企業貸款餘額32萬億元，同比增長17.1%。<br>

  　　從資產質量看，二季度末，商業銀行不良貸款餘額3.3萬億元，較上季末減少272億元；商業銀行不良貸款率1.56%，較上季末下降0.03個百分點，表現總體穩定。<br>

  　　商業銀行風險抵補能力整體充足。上半年，商業銀行累計實現淨利潤1.3萬億元，同比增長0.4%。二季度末，商業銀行貸款損失準備餘額爲7萬億元，較上季末增加1040億元；撥備覆蓋率爲209.32%，較上季末上升4.78個百分點；資本充足率爲15.53%，較上季末上升0.1個百分點。<br>

  　　中國銀行研究院認爲，今年以來，在淨息差不斷收窄的背景下，中國銀行業保持對實體經濟的支持力度，平衡可持續發展與社會責任，盈利水平合理適度，資產質量基本穩定，資本充足情況良好。<br>

  　　全年來看，該機構判斷，商業銀行信貸規模將穩步成長，結構進一步優化，新的高科技、高附加值領域出現，將有效銜接信貸需求缺口，成爲銀行業資產規模持續增長的新動能。(完) <br>
  當局數據顯示，去年內地商業銀行淨利潤2.38萬億元人民幣，按年增長3.2%；撥備覆蓋率205.1%。截至去年底，銀行業金融機構不良貸款餘額3.95萬億元，較年初增加1495億元，不良貸款率1.62%；商業銀行逾期90天以上貸款與不良貸款比例為84.2%，保持在較低水平；全年處置不良資產3萬億元。


source: Bloomberg
date: 2024-09-03
contents:
  <b>BackRock's EM ETF Loss Billions on China "Volatility Machine"</b>, money managers yanked billions out of EM ETF that buys emerging market stocks as mounting evidence of a weakening Chinese economy pushed investors to dump the nation's equities.<br>
  BlackRock's $17.4 billion iShares MSCI Emerging Market ETF, know by its ticker EEM, saw about 1.5billion in outflows in August - its largest monthly loss since October. The fund tracks a market cap-weighted portfolio of EM stocks, with a 21.9% allocation to China, its largest country exposure.<br>
  China is a major volatility machine, and most investors likely aren't looking for that kind of exposure. and concerns are only deepening, over the weekend, China reported that factory activity contracted for a fourth straight month in August amid a weakening property market that continues to drag on the economy.<br>
  China's policy direction remain unclear, while tension with U.S. are likely to continue regardless of who win the election. <b> one of the more mainstream ETF trends "today is the growth of EM ex-China strategies.</b>


source: Bloomberg
date: 2024-09-03
contents:
  <b> China Services Expansion Cools in New Sign of Economic Weakness</b>. China's services activity expanded less than expected, adding to worries over the economy's health. <br>
  The Caixin China services purchasing managers' index fell to 51.6 in August, compared with 52.1 the previous moth, the market consensus was 51.8. Competition in the sector was still fierce, and boosting sales through price cuts become a priority for businesses. Companies adopted a cautious approach to hiring to save costs, leaving the labor market under pressure.<br>
  The outlook for the country's $17 trillion economy still hinges largely on the prospects for manufacturing and exports even as new hurdles emerge to their expansion. China's factory activity contracted for a fourth straight month in August.


source: Bloomberg
date: 2024-09-05
contents:
  JPMorgan Chase abandoned its buy recommendation for Chinese stocks, citing heightening volatility around the upcoming US elections  in addition to growth headwinds and tepid policy support. China was downgraded to neutral from overweight. The potential trade war - "the impact of a potential tariff war 2.0 (with tariffs incoming from 20% to 60%) could be more significant than the first tariff war. <br>
  <b> JPMorgan Chase expect China's long-term growth to trend down structurally due to supply-chain relocation, the expansion of US-China conflict and continued domestic issues.<b>


source: Bloomberg
date: 2024-09-05
contents:
  Earnings per share for MSCI China index fell 4.5% from the year earlier in the second quarter, its worst in the first quarter. Underscoring the contraction was weakening support from country's eight tech firms, whose overall EPS growth at 19% was the slowest since the last quarter 2022.<br>
  The dismal performance has sent the unambiguous signal that China's anemic consumption is becoming entrenched as the housing crises persist and other growth engine sputter.  It also reinforces the view that the stock market is unlikely to stage any meaningful rebound unless the government ramp up the efforts to turn the economy round.


source: Bloomberg
date: 2024-09-05
contents:
  <b> Beijing mulling mortgage refinance a risk to Bank. </b>Financial regulator has proposed reducing rates on outstanding mortgage nationwide by a total of about 80 basis points. The first cut may come in the next few weeks while the second move would take effect at the beginning of next year. <br>
   China mortgage rate cut may slice $33B off from 10 bank profits, or 11.8% of pretax on average, if the government goes ahead with a reported plan to cut rates on $5.3trillion of mortgage as much as 80 basis points. In more modest case, the hit would be $15billion or 5.2% of pretax. <br>
  <b> Souring home loan on the rise, yet risk manageable</b>. Mortgage quality at the 10 Chinese lenders has deteriorated quickly during 1H, though non-performing loan ratios still held below 1%. That may not spell immediate trouble as these loans are secured by hard assets.  Yet more quality worsening may soon drive up banks' credit cost if collateral values drop further amid the lingering property crises.<br>
  In essence, it's a transfer of wealth from banks to households, so positive for consumption. if all existing mortgage are  to be refinanced, borrowers can save about 300 billion yuan in interest payments annually, equivalent to 0.6% of the nation's retail sales or 0.2% of GDP.


source: Bloomberg
date: 2024-09-08
contents:
  China's former central bank chief made a rare admission that the nation should tackle deflation. The economy face worst deflationary streak since 1999, putting pressure on corporate profit, wage and assets price. <br>
  China should focus on fighting deflationary pressure now. The unambiguous message contrast with the people's bank of china's restrained efforts in monetary easing so far.  The PBOC has repeatedly signaled it would refrain from any drastic easing.The PBOC has been reluctant to cut interest rates aggressively because of concerns about currency weakness and banks' profit margins.<br>
  Bearish sentiment intensified in financial markets, risk-off sentiment remain dominant in equity and bond markets.<br>
  Moving quickly to cut mortgage rates may be China's best shot to fight persistent deflation and property slump.


